WEST REGION BREAKDOWN

A Breakdown and Prediction of all games in the West Region

Mar 14, 2022

It is March Madness time!!! I am super excited for the tournament to start. Like most, I like filling out brackets, trying to decipher where the upsets will be, will the 1 seeds survive, and everything in between. In this article I will be going through every matchup in the West region. I’ll give some info that I have researched on both teams, and then I will talk about my prediction in every game and why I think it. If you enjoy this article, I will have 3 more on the way, detailing the other 3 regions. Let’s get into it!

*NOTE - I will probably be way wrong

First Four

#11 Rutgers vs #11 Notre Dame

Rutgers

A slower paced team with a solid defense
Use a lot of pick and rolls. They were good with the ball handler, and they were the best team in the country hitting the roll man.
Not good in transition
47% of Catch and Shoot attempts were open
Good around the rim on offense
Struggle protecting the rim on defense
Not great against good wings on defense
Been very good against pick and rolls

Notre Dame

A slow paced team with a good offense and average defense
Very good 3 point shooting team
Do not create extra possessions for themselves (low ORB% and Opp TO%)
Do not allow opponents to have extra possessions (low Opp ORB% and TO%)
Very good spotting up but get a lot less efficient when off the dribble
Get a lot of open catch and shoot looks
Bad defending against the pick and roll
Very poor rim protection
Good transition defense and against spot ups

Prediction: Rutgers 67 - Notre Dame 61

Rutgers Case

I think this will ultimately be a close game. Rutgers seems to have the advantage to me though. I do not think Notre Dame will have an answer for Clifford Omoryui on Rutgers. Notre Dame has struggled against the pick and roll, and Rutgers utilizes it a lot. Notre Dame has also struggled against shot creators, which Rutgers have multiple of.

Notre Dame Case

For Notre Dame to win, they will have to protect the rim better on defense. If they can do that, Rutgers is not a great shooting team. Rutgers has also not been great defending the 3, and Notre Dame shoots them well.

Round of 64

#1 Gonzaga vs #16 Georgia State

Gonzaga

Best offense in the country
7th best defense in the country
Capable of scoring in a multitude of ways
Very fast paced team
Do not turn the ball over much but do not force a ton of turnovers
One of the best rim protecting defenses
A very large team
4 legit 3 point shooters
Only are 7 deep
Great against pick and roll
Can get caught on defense not defending cuts
Insanely efficient in transition
In the 99th percentile on pull up jumper efficiency
Great catch and shoot team

Georgia State

Do not commit many turnovers
Press a lot on defense and can cause a lot of turnovers from it
Solid half court defense
Want to get in transition on offense where they are solid
Very poor offense when in the half court
Poor 3 point shooting team, and they struggle a ton defending the 3 point line
Allow a lot of offensive rebounds

Prediction: Gonzaga 92 - Georgia State 65

Gonzaga Case

They have Chet Holmgren. Georgia State does not have Chet Holmgren.

In all seriousness, Gonzaga is legit. Georgia State will not have the size, speed, or talent to keep up with Gonzaga

Georgia State Case

Georgia State has to rely on the press for the entire game. With the press, they will have to force a ton of turnovers, and convert that into offense.

#8 Boise State vs #9 Memphis

Boise State

Very slow paced with a very good defense and average offense
On defense, force 61.3% of catch and shoot opportunities to be contested
Have been very good defending pull ups
Average against pick and rolls and post ups
Not a very good rim protecting team
On offense, utilize a lot of pick and rolls and have been efficient
Will kick out a lot to wings for spot ups
146th in 3 point shooting
52.9% of catch and shoot shots are open
Very good rebounding team
Turn it over a lot

Memphis

A fast paced team with an above average offense and defense
352 out of 358 in TO% in the country (commit a lot of TOs)
Very good offensive rebounding team but very poor defensive rebounding team
60th in 3 point shooting, but they do not take a lot of 3s
Allow a lot of 3s on defense
Good transition defense
Very good defending in pick and roll
REALLY good rim protection
Like to get in transition on offense where they are good. If they get into the half court, their offense is not as good
Like to get to the rim a lot where they shoot the best
Will be tough for them to win if they settle on jumpers

Prediction: Memphis 72 - Boise State 62

This game will come down to tempo. Whoever controls tempo will win I think. I have really liked Boise State all year, but they drew a team that can exploit all of the things they do poorly.

Case for Memphis

Memphis should be able to push the tempo in the game. They are in the 94th percentile in press defense, and they do it a lot. Boise State is in the 30th percentile of press offense, and they turn the ball over 18% of the time that they are pressed. In general Boise State turns it over a lot, and Memphis forces a lot of turnovers. Boise State also relies heavily on pick and rolls, and Memphis has been great defending them. Boise State is a very poor rim protecting team, and the best part of Memphis’ offense is getting to the rim.

Case for Boise State

If Boise State can limit turnovers and slow the pace way down, they are the better half court team. Boise State has not been a great shooting team, but they knock enough down. Memphis gives up a ton of threes, so if Boise State can knock them down, they will be able to keep up with Memphis.

#5 UCONN vs #12 New Mexico State

UCONN

#21 Offense - #35 Defense - #291 Tempo
#1 ORB% in the country - this is mainly from their 6’9 center Sanogo
Do not force many turnovers (#204 in country)
#79 in 3 Pt shooting - #249 in 2 Pt shooting
Defense is opposite
- #233 in 3Pt Defense - #5 in 2 Pt Defense
6-7 people that play significant minutes
Have good guard play with RJ Cole
Efficient in transition, and like to get in transition often
- When not in transition, they use a lot of the shot clock
Get lots of spot ups on the wings which mainly become catch and shoot
Have a lot more off ball movement than pick and rolls run
Take a lot of mid range shots
Have really good rim protection on defense
Allow a lot of 4-10 foot shots on defense

New Mexico State

#87 Offense - #73 Defense - #223 Pace
Bigger team that will start 5 players 6’4 and up
Very good rebounding team (#39)
Turn it over a lot and do not force many turnovers (#313 and #271 respectively)
Allow a ton of three pointers on defense
Not a great shooting team
Mainly will shoot either from 3 or at the rim
Get lots of spot ups on offense, but they want to drive rather than shoot
Not great pick and roll offense
VERY good cutting team
Defend the rim very well
Not great against the pick and roll
Aside from pick and roll, they have been a good defense
Allow a lot of mid range shots, and have been ok at defending them.
Allow 55.8% of catch and shoot attempts to be open

Prediction UCONN 60 - New Mexico State - 57

This is going to be a slow paced game, and I do not think either team is dominant enough to make this a blowout.

UCONN Case

UCONN is the better team overall. What they do not do well (mid range defense, pick and roll offense, turnovers) are all things that New Mexico State do not matchup with. NMS is not a great pick and roll defense. They also do not force turnovers at all, and they commit a lot of turnovers. UCONN has the size and length to match. NMS gets a lot if its offense from cuts and offball movement, and this is something UCONN defense well. I think UCONN just has the slightly better shot making ability. They are also 43rd in FT%, while NMS is 264th.

New Mexico State Case

UCONN is not a team that forces many turnovers, and this would allow NMS to get into their offense. If they do not turn the ball over a lot, they have shown that they can get going. NMS will have to knock down some open 3s. They should be able to get looks because UCONN has been so good protecting the rim. NMS will also need to be able to create some mid range shots where UCONN has struggled a lot.

#4 Arkansas vs #13 Vermont

Arkansas

40th Offense - 16th Defense - 28th Tempo
On defense they press about 13% of the time and have been good with it.
Relies more on the defense than the offense
Have been very good on ball defenders (pick and roll, isolation, drives) but they have struggled off ball (off ball screens, cuts, handoffs)
Allow 51.1% of Catch and Shoot to be open
Looking to force turnovers to create offense
Have not been great on offense in the half court
A very poor 3 point shooting team (#313)
Allow a lot of threes
Great rim protection
No real perimeter threats on offense

Vermont

#44 Offense - #74 Defense - #288 Tempo
Great shooting team
- #3 in country in eFG%
- #3 in 2p%
- #38 in 3p%
Shoot a lot of three pointers
Don’t create extra possessions (forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding)
#16 in TO% (don’t turn the ball over)
#1 in Opponent ORB% (don’t allow offensive rebounds)
Undersized, with no one being above 6’7
Foul a lot on defense
Very good transition offense
Lots of off ball movement in offense that generate good looks
51.8% of catch and shoot attempts are open
Hit a lot of shots off the dribble, and get to the rim very well
Not a good perimeter defense
Have been good defending PnR and post ups
Very good defensive transition team

Prediction: Vermont 71 - Arkansas 65

Case for Vermont

They are a really good shooting team, and that is the thing Arkansas struggles defending against. Vermont is a good transition defense, and Arkansas likes to generate a lot of offense out of transition. Arkansas allows a high percentage of open catch and shoot 3s, and Vermont generates a lot of them. Vermont has the shot making ability to pull off a bigger upset like this. Arkansas relies on 2 pointers a lot, and Vermont is the #22 team at defending 2s.

Case for Arkansas

They need to be able to force turnovers. Vermont does a good job taking care of the ball, but Arkansas needs to generate fast break points. Arkansas is more athletic, and for them to win, they need to be able to take guys off of the bounce. Arkansas also needs to be able to speed this game up. Even just applying a press will cause Vermont to be sped up and not get into their offense. JD Notae for Arkansas will need to be able to create a lot of offense which he is more than capable of.

#6 Alabama vs #11 Rutgers

Alabama

#14 Offense - #94 Defense - #12 Tempo
Take a ton of three pointers
Get to the rim often
Have not been a consistent team. They have some great and terrible games all in a row
Generate a ton of catch and shoot opportunities, but they are #305 in 3p%
Have not been good defending the three point line
Solid rim protection on defense
Super deep team that will be able to keep fresh legs and really push the pace of the game
Will turn it over a lot
Get a lot of second chance opportunities

Rutgers

#107 Offense - #43 Defense - #289 Pace
Not a great 3 point shooting team, and they allow a ton of three pointers
Have two great shot creators
Don’t stand out in any major category, but they have not been really bad in any either
Utilize the pick and roll a lot, getting a lot of lobs to the roller
Not great shooting the pull up
Poor rim protection on defense
Bad against teams that spot up
Very good against the pick and roll

Prediction: Alabama 79 - Rutgers 70

Alabama Case

Rutgers defense is bad at protecting the rim and defending spot ups. These are the two things Alabama does the most. Rutgers has not been great defending in transition, and that is what Alabama wants to do a lot of. I think Alabama will be able to speed Rutgers up and cause some problems. They will also get plenty of good looks. Alabama has the versatility on defense to throw different looks at Harper and Baker.

Rutgers Case

The best case for Rutgers is that Alabama might just lose the game. Alabama has shown they are more than capable of beating themselves. Rutgers also has the shot creators to stay with any team. Alabama has not been great defensively, and both Harper and Baker may be able to take advantage of it. If Rutgers can slow the game down, Alabama is not built to grind it out.

#3 Texas Tech vs #14 Montana State

Texas Tech

#65 Offense - #1 Defense - #211 Pace
Force a ton of turnovers, and a lot of them are live ball turnovers that lead to transition points
Not a great half court offense
Press a good amount and force a turnover on 26.6% of possessions when pressing
Force a lot of perimeter shots on defense
Terrible shooting team
Very good at getting to the rim and converting
Super Deep team

Montana State

#147 Offense - #129 Defense - #157 Pace
Very good three point shooting team but do not take a lot of threes
Turn it over a lot
Solid in pick and roll offense
Get to the rim a lot
Good rim protection on defense
Average in transition defense
Contest a lot of catch and shoot opportunities

Prediction: Texas Tech 62 - Montana State 51

Texas Tech Case

They force a ton of turnovers and Montana State commits a lot of turnovers. Montana State has also not been great in transition defense, and this is where Texas Tech likes to get a lot of their points. I think Texas Tech is too athletic, and will make it tough for Montana State to get anything on offense.

Montanan State Case

If Montana State can handle the pressure, they can get into their offense where they have been a good shooting team. They will need to generate a lot of 3s and hit them at a high rate.

#7 Michigan State vs #10 Davidson

Michigan State

#38 Offense - #53 Defense - #141 Pace
Turn it over a lot and they do not force many turnovers
One of the best three point shooting teams in the country
Not great in transition
Post up a lot and well
In the 97th percentile for catch and shoot attempts
Run a lot of pick and roll well
Very bad at defending in transition
Not great defending post ups
Defend the three point line well and contest a lot of shots

Davidson

#11 Offense - #152 Defense - #304 Pace
Very slow paced team
#8 in the country in 3 point shooting
Allow a ton of three pointers on defense
Fantastic offense in the half court
Do not run much pick and roll
Very efficient in post ups and spot ups
Not a great transition defense
Very bad defending the pick and roll
Contest a lot of three pointers

Prediction: MSU 68 - Davidson 61

MSU Case

MSU has done well in pick and roll, and Davidson has not defended it well. I think this will be the key difference. Both teams shoot the 3 and defend the 3 very well. Neither team forces many turnovers. MSU will just have more of the athletes that can create shots, especially in pick and roll. This will give them the advantage.

Davidson Case

MSU is not a super fast paced team, and they have struggled in transition offense. This plays into Davidson’s hands, and could allow them to get their half court offense going. MSU has not been great defending post ups, and Davidson utilizes them a lot. Davidson will need to find a way to not be exploited in the pick and roll.

#2 Duke vs #15 CSU Fullerton

Duke

#7 Offense - #44 Defense - #150 Pace
Not a super deep team
Very good in the pick and roll offense
They have multiple weapons that can get to the rim
Very good shooting team with multiple shooting threats.
All starters are 6’4 and above
Have not been a good transition defense team.
Have 3 really elite shooters
Struggled some defending pick and roll

CSU Fullerton

#144 Offense - #164 Defense - #239 Pace
Very slow paced
Not a good shooting team
Best offense is in transition
Also good running pick and rolls
Can’t get to the rim a lot
Bad perimeter defense and against the post
Good at limiting transition on defense
Not a good rim protecting team

Prediction: Duke 75 - CSU Fullerton 58

Duke Case
Duke is the much more talented team. CSU lacks size, and Duke should be able to punish them down low. CSU is #330 in defensive 3p%. Duke should be able to have their way with them.

CSU Case
CSU has to be able to knock down threes and get in transition. Duke has not been a great defensive transition team, so CSU will have to not let Duke get setup. On defense, they need to sellout on shooters, and hope that their interior defense is enough.

Round of 32

#1 Gonzaga vs #9 Memphis

Gonzaga Case
Memphis allows a lot of three pointers, and Gonzaga has been one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. Memphis has the size in Duren to try and take away one of Chet or Timme, but not both. Memphis really excels on offense in both transition and at the rim. Gonzaga has been one of the best rim protection teams in the country, and they have thrived in transition on both offense and defense.

Memphis Case

Memphis is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and Gonzaga has not been great in allowing offensive rebounds. Memphis can use this to get second chance points. Memphis commits a lot of turnovers, but Gonzaga has not forced a ton. Memphis will need to be able to knock down some threes, as Gonzaga has such a tough interior defense.

Prediction: Gonzaga 82 - Memphis 73

I think Gonzaga just has too much firepower for Memphis to keep up.

#5 UCONN vs #13 Vermont

UCONN Case
UCONN has very good rim protection, and Vermont likes to get to the rim. UCONN will need to be able to limit the three point attempts by Vermont. UCONN is the more athletic and physical team. UCONN is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, while Vermont is the best defensive rebounding team in the country. UCONN’s defense allows a lot of shorter mid range attempts, but Vermont has not done well with those. UCONN has the capability of winning this game based purely on physicality.

Vermont Case
Vermont is very much dangerous in this game. UCONN has not been good defending the three point line, and Vermont is one of the best shooting teams in the country. They generate a lot of open looks and knock them down at a high rate. They are not great on defense on the perimeter, but UCONN prefers to go inside where Vermont has a better defense. If Vermont does not allow second chance opportunities, there defense is good enough to slow UCONN down.

Prediction: Vermont 69 - UCONN 62

I think the shooting will be too much for UCONN. Vermont has shown they do all the little things right, and UCONN is not a good enough shooting team to win if they let Vermont get hot.

#3 Texas Tech vs #6 Alabama

Texas Tech Case
Alabama turns the ball over a lot, and that is exactly what Texas Tech wants. Texas Tech will press a lot, and Alabama is in the 10th percentile when facing the press. They turn it over 20% of the time when pressed. This will also force Alabama to not be in transition which is where their best offense is generated. Alabama’s defense is not great, and that is all Texas Tech needs since their half court offense is not the best either.

Alabama Case
If Alabama can not commit turnovers, they may really speed up Texas Tech. Alabama is a good rim protection defense, and that is where Texas Tech likes to get a lot of shots at. Texas Tech allows the 14th most 3s, and Alabama takes the 12th most 3s. If Alabama gets hot as they can, Texas Tech may not have the offense to keep up.

Prediction: Texas Tech 65 - Alabama 57
I think Texas Tech’s pressure is too much for Alabama to overcome.

#2 Duke vs #7 Michigan State

Duke Case
Duke may have a mismatch with Williams down low against Bingham for MSU. I am also not sure who Michigan State has that could slow down Banchero. Banchero has a great opportunity to have a big game. Michigan State limits three pointers, so the interior may be open for Duke. Michigan State has also really struggled defending in transition, something Duke can take advantage of.

MSU Case
Duke utilizes a lot of pick and rolls, and MSU has been good defending them. Duke also has not been terrible, but not been the best defending the three point line. MSU will get some looks from 3, and they are a good shooting team who can knock them down. MSU is more than capable of having one of those nights from 3.

Prediction: Duke 72 - MSU 70
In the end, I think Paolo for Duke will be just slightly too much for MSU to handle. If this matchup happens, I expect it to be a very close game.

Sweet 16

#1 Gonzaga vs #13 Vermont

Gonzaga Case
Vermont’s tallest player is 6’7. They will not have the size to matchup with the duo of Chet and Timme. Gonzaga has done well defending the three point line, but they do allow a lot of attempts. Vermont has not been good defending the three point line, and Gonzaga has multiple guys that can shoot. Vermont has not been good at the point of attack on defense, and Gonzaga will have multiple guys on the floor that will have mis matches.

Vermont Case
Gonzaga allows a lot of three pointers, and Vermont has been very good shooting. Vermont will need to be lights out from 3, but they have the capability to do it. Vermont has also been very good defending transition, and that is something Gonzaga utilizes a lot. If Vermont can turn it into more of a halfcourt game, they may be able to cause some problems if all of their rotations are on point.

Prediction: Gonzaga 82 - Vermont 64

I think Gonzaga is too much and Vermont will not have an answer for both Timme and Chet.

#2 Duke vs #3 Texas Tech

Duke Case
Texas Tech loves to press (don’t know if I have mentioned this 5 times already). Duke has been arguably the best offenses against the press, although it is a limited sample size. Duke does not commit many turnovers, and they are more than capable of handling the pressure. Texas Tech struggles some on defense against shot creators, and Duke has them. Texas Tech also allows a lot of three pointers, and Duke has the shooters to knock them down.

Texas Tech Case
If Texas Tech speeds up Duke, Duke will be playing at a pace they don’t want. Duke has not been a good defensive transition team, and Texas Tech wants to get into transition as much as possible. Duke also fouls a lot, and Texas Tech gets to the line a bunch (although they are not a good free throw shooting team). Texas Tech has the depth to tire the shorter Duke rotation out.

Prediction: Texas Tech 60 - Duke 57
I don’t feel great about this one, but I think Texas Tech just barely does enough. Duke may get tired out and become careless with the ball by the end of the game. I think Texas Tech steps up to the challenge defensively and gets the job done.

Elite Eight

#1 Gonzaga vs #3 Texas Tech

Gonzaga Case
Gonzaga has been one of the best teams handling pressure all year long. They have the pieces to get around the press, and force Texas Tech to guard them in the half court. Texas Tech gives up a lot of threes, and Gonzaga has 4 guys that can shoot. Chet is such a matchup nightmare for teams, and although Texas Tech have some pieces to throw at him, I think he still has a big day. I also think Gonzaga has the rim protection necessary to stop Texas Tech. Gonzaga has been very good defending in transition, and it will be tough for Texas Tech to score if Gonzaga forces Tech into a halfcourt game.

Texas Tech Case
Sticking with the theme, Texas Tech wins if they force turnovers. I don’t think they can speed Gonzaga up just because of how fast Gonzaga plays. However, they can definitely turn Gonzaga over. This puts Gonzaga in trouble on defense, as their rim protectors may not be there. Texas Tech is a slower team in general, but I think they can’t afford to let Gonzaga get set on both offense and defense. Texas Tech will have to knock down some threes.

Prediction: Gonzaga 78 - Texas Tech 66

I do not think Texas Tech has the shooting to keep up with Gonzaga. Texas Tech I expect will have some runs in the game where they force turnovers. When that does not happen, I think Gonzaga will get some quality looks. Gonzaga will rely on its rim protection to force Texas Tech to shoot 3s, something they are not good at.

And there it is, my West side of the bracket. I think Vermont has a very legitimate case to be a Cinderella in the Sweet Sixteen. I also think the bottom half of the bracket will be a lot of close games. The Memphis Gonzaga game would be a lot of fun (so would Gonzaga Boise State). Gonzaga is definitely beatable, but based on my predictions, I do not think they run into a matchup that can completely stop them.

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