Michigan's Defensive Identity: How They Dominate The Paint
Michigan currently has the best defense in the country, headlined by the best defensive 2P%. A breakdown of how they do it
As of this writing, the Michigan Wolverines have the best defensive 2P% in the entire country, allowing teams to convert on only 36.9% of their shots inside of the arc. If you look at what the top 2 point defenses have been in the past, Michigan is elite among the elite.
Now truthfully, that stat is a bit misleading. Even though Michigan has had one of the toughest schedules so far in this young season, this stat compares Michigan’s 4 week sample size to full seasons from the other teams.
Above shows the best defensive 2P% in each season. The first number shows what that percentage was after 4 weeks of the season, and the 2nd number shows the season end 2P%. On average, the team that ended up with the best 2P% defense in the country had a 1.8% worse percentage on the season compared to the first four weeks. If you were to add 1.8% to the 36.9% that Michigan is giving up, that’d be 38.7%, which would be the third best of all time.
Before getting into the nuances of how Michigan has been able to do this, there’s one more stat to look at.
This looks at the leader in defensive 2P% through 4 weeks of the season, as we currently stand today. Michigan rates much lower on this list, but there’re a few things worth pointing out.
Offenses are getting better and better. 4 of the last 5 seasons fall in the bottom 5 for this category.
A lot (but not all) of these teams feature a heavy dose of buy games early in the season, helping to inflate these percentages.
On average, teams that led the country in defensive 2P% had a worse 2P% at the end of the season by 7.7%.
This is a lot of numbers and hypothetical scenarios, without a ton of explanation. Does this really matter?
After running through the Players Era, Michigan currently has the 8th toughest schedule in the country per Kenpom. Alabama is the only Power 5 team with a schedule tougher than Michigan at this point, and that may be why the numbers matter above.
Michigan has only played 4 weeks of the season, but when you compare their schedules with the other teams that led after 4 weeks, Kentucky in 2015 and Kansas in 2010 are the only teams with a comparable non-con schedule. Kentucky ended that season 2nd in the country in defensive 2P%. Kansas ended that season 1st in the country in defensive 2P%.
It isn’t just purely that Michigan is having this elite start to the year with their interior defense, it’s that they’ve been able to do it against varying levels of real competition. Even their two buy games have been against teams that hover around 150 in Kenpom.
All of that is just to say, this Michigan defense seems very much legit. Between their front court trio of Aday Mara, Morez Johnson, and Yaxel Lendeborg being able to protect the rim, and their guards being able to apply pressure on the perimeter, this Michigan defense has been incredibly tough to go against.
Oakland averaged 1.005 points per possession and Auburn averaged 1.013 PPP against Michigan. They are the only two teams to average over a point per possession against the Wolverines, and for reference, the D1 median for PPP is 1.06.
Between Michigan’s drop coverage, ability to switch off-ball actions, and simply having the defensive talent, there’s a few big things that have helped there defense be elite. We’ll start with what types of shots Michigan has been forcing, before getting into the film breakdown later.