Braden Smith's Game Without Zach Edey

Braden Smith had a great season last year for Purdue. Now with Zach Edey gone, many are questioning just how productive he will be.

Last year Braden Smith was one of the most productive point guards in the country. He averaged 12 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.8 rebounds a game. Only 8 other players have posted those stats since 2008.

List - https://x.com/joejacksonCBB/status/1841198184569135199

He was named Pre-season Big Ten Player Of The Year by the media after being the only returning All Big Ten 1st Team member last season. It is a wide open Big Ten with many players that could end up winning it. The big concern is what does he look like without Zach Edey this year. Was he just the beneficiary of playing alongside an all time great? Could you plug in any starting point guard and they would put up those numbers, or is Smith just that good?

Braden Smith played 163 minutes last year without Zach Edey. I watched them all to see what stood out and maybe what we could expect this season.

Brief Stats

That stat major in me just has to put this out on paper to start. 163 minutes is not a large sample size, basically being 4 games worth. With that comes a lot of variance. But here are Braden Smith’s PER 40 MINUTES stats with and without Zach Edey on the floor last year.

Edey on - 13.9 ppg, 9.3 apg, 6.8 rpg, 3.0 TOs, 1.9 spg, 43.0% 3s, 45.1% 2s

Edey off - 15.7 ppg, 5.6 apg, 6.9 rpg, 4.4 TOs, 1.7 spg, 43.8% 3s, 41.7% 2s

So the scoring went up and the facilitating decreased. Given how big of an adjustment it is going from having Edey to not (specifically when you always practice with him), these numbers make a lot of sense. He had to score a bit more, but the facilitating becomes more difficult without 7’4 Edey absorbing bodies in the lane.

But again, it is not a large sample size (amidst other factors), so I think the film will be more important in truly starting to see what Braden Smith and the Purdue offense look like without Zach Edey.

General Takeaways

We are about to dive into the film, but I think my most general takeaway from watching all of the Braden Smith minutes without Edey is… it really didn’t look different from a style stand point. Yes there were nuances that players will have to adjust to, but Purdue still was Purdue. They still ran their Horns Twist Exit (clip 1 below) and Gut Chicago and Weave PnR actions. They still threw the ball into the post, featuring a guy in TKR that will get a lot of touches down there. I didn’t know what to expect going in, but I quickly remembered that Painter has one of the best offenses in the country for a reason.

Pick and Rolls

Last year Braden Smith ran amongst the most pick and rolls in the entire country, with a lot of them involving Zach Edey. Now it will be TKR and whoever else emerges from the big room setting the screens and there will be differences for sure. Last year Smith would let Edey roll to the rim, controlling the pacing until being able to lob it up to Edey at the rim or let him seal.

Trey Kaufman-Renn will be the featured big of the Purdue offense, and with that comes a difference in style. TKR is more of a ‘short roll’ guy, where he will often catch the ball anywhere from 10-15 feet and work from there (as shown below).

When thinking about what level of success Braden Smith will have next year, TKR’s timing in the short roll is one of the first things that pop into my head. They have some work from last year on it, but now they have had an entire off season to fine tune the timing (something that is probably not discussed enough).

I think there is also the concern that Edey was the one creating all of the advantages for the Purdue offense, given his insane gravity. It wasn’t uncommon for Edey to draw in 2-3 guys on a roll, which in turn frees up the rest of the offense.

Even if TKR takes a huge jump, it isn’t fair for anyone to expect to replicate what Edey can do. The question is though, can Braden Smith still create the same type of looks without Edey on the floor?

Let’s look at what Smith looked like against drop coverage without Edey on the floor. Drop coverage is when the defender who is guarding the screener plays below the screen to protect the rim.

I will once again point out small sample, but Smith still consistently tore drop coverage up. It didn’t really matter who the screener was, if Smith was given space in drop, he got what he wanted. The speed coming off the screen differed a bit though. With Edey at times he may slow up a second to allow Edey to roll. Without Edey, it felt like he exploded downhill a bit more to really engage the big.

Braden is going to have to score the ball more. Braden Smith showed last year he could tear defenses apart from the mid range with his pullup. Again he showed that he could get to his looks with or without Edey. Focusing on the 2nd play above though (against Maryland), I think is one of the first noticeable changes we have seen.

Purdue runs their double screen look, with Furst being the 2nd screener. Reese is defending. Against Edey rolling, Reese may choose to drop more, knowing he wants to try and take away the lob. With Furst rolling, you see Reese last minute step up a bit more to force Smith into a tougher look. I would expect more defenses to go to this at least until others on Purdue show they can punish on the roll. The 2nd clip I just mentioned is below also

So although Edey’s gravity and ability to create space CANNOT be overstated, there are plenty of examples where Braden Smith was in face the one torturing the defense, creating the angles that he wanted to create. The two main things I will look for with him specifically is the speed he comes off of a screen and what angle he takes. Against drop is he going to be turning the corner more to really engage the big, or will he still opt to try and drag defenders away from the rim.

The other main defense he will see is ‘hedge’ coverage, where the big steps up towards the ball handler.

Now admittedly, teams just didn’t hard hedge him all that much without Edey on the floor. We’ll see if that holds this season. But in a clip like above, where the big does stay with Smith, Braden still finds what he needs to. Northwestern’s defense is predicated on early rotation, but even so, it isn’t Edey who is making the openings for Purdue.

Then there is this play like the one above. Again, not necessarily a hard hedge, but the big is up much higher in drop, basically at the level. Even with Edey off of the floor, Smith is able to easily rotate the defense to find an open shooter. Did Edey make that immensely easier while on the floor? Absolutely. Was he the only reason Smith was able to find open shooters? Probably not.

The Concerns

I just spent a good amount of words (and not concisely at that) talking about why Braden Smith is still going to be Braden Smith and Purdue is still going to be Purdue even without Edey out there. But it would be insane of me to think there isn’t potential for any bumps along the way. In fact, I do expect them to be there, especially early in the season.

What happens when teams just say ‘hey Braden, you have to beat us with your scoring and not with your passing’? The Big Ten isn’t necessarily known for having a lot of teams that switch, but what happens when teams do. Teams may even be more likely to do it this season with not having to worry about switching a guard onto Edey. They may take their chances for a bit with doubling TKR or others in the post.

Smith has the ability to score against switches, evident by clips 2 and 3. He can take bigs off the bounce or get to the pull up. But he has to work a lot harder for it, and he has a bit more trouble getting to the shots. When teams don’t have to worry about Edey on the floor, they may be a bit more comfortable switching a big onto Smith so that way he doesn’t have any advantage created via a screen.

The other aspect that I am concerned about is the turnovers. Small sample and all that, but the turnover rate jumped from 3.0 turnovers per 40 minutes with Edey on the floor to 4.4 turnovers per 40 minutes without Edey on the floor. There are little things with timings and where Smith expected guys to be that forced Smith to either go a bit quicker than he wanted, or have guys out of place.

The above clip has three different turnovers, and I think for 3 different reasons.

1. Smith comes off the screen and gets the defense rotated. Furst flashes middle as Edey does. I think it ultimately is the right read but he is forced to opt for the bounce pass given it isn’t Edey down there. The timing comes into play though because he has to hesitate just a second before throwing it, allowing the defense to get back into the play

2. Smith comes off the handoff and notices Guerrier (defender of TKR) step up a bit. With TKR getting behind his guy, Smith is expecting him to continue his roll all the way to the rim. TKR stops and a turnover ensues

3. Rutgers is in a hard hedge, and Purdue’s spacing is all over with both bigs occupying the strong side. Again, I think this is the right read, but the combination of spacing, length, and speed force the pass to end up in the stands instead of Heide’s hands.

Concluding Thoughts

Braden Smith is going to have some bumps as he adjusts to life without Edey. He has all off season to perfect the little things with TKR, Furst, Jacobsen, Berg, and Burgess. But defenses also have all off season (and realistically the couple days before Purdue games) to prep as Braden Smith being the guy. It goes both ways.

Who emerges out of the big room is probably a bigger question than ‘will Braden Smith be good without Edey’. If you are concerned about Smith’s assist numbers dropping, I think it is fair, but it is not because Smith needs Edey, it would be because Edey was such an astronomically good finisher around the rim that his replacements just aren’t going to score as well as him. If Smith creates the same exact looks and usage that he did with Edey, it would make sense for his assist numbers to drop just because it isn’t a 2x NPOY actually putting the ball in the rim.

Most importantly from this though, Purdue is still going to run Purdue’s offense. The screening may not be as good, but Braden is more than talented enough to be able to create advantages, and once he creates them, he has the passing and shooting chops to put defenses in a real bind.

Subscribe for more Big Ten basketball content!!!

Subscribe on Youtube for college basketball film breakdowns - https://www.youtube.com/@FeedthePost

Follow me on Twitter - https://x.com/joejacksonCBB