Big Ten Weekly Newsletter (3/3)
This is March.
We have just about made it, the last week of the regular season is upon us. At this point it’s a two man race for the Big Ten title. If Michigan wins or MSU loses their first game this week, then the title will be decided in a matchup between them on Sunday. Indiana, Nebraska, and Ohio State all find themselves on the NCAA Tourney bubble. There is still one undecided team that will not make the Big Ten Tournament. It’ll be a fun week in Big Ten hoops.
It is finally March. I plan on having a lot of content out over the next month and the off season including
Scouting reports for every March Madness game involving a Big Ten team
Big Ten Tournament Preview
Individual breakdowns on EVERY single incoming freshman and transfer to the Big Ten
If you had been considering upgrading a paid subscription, this might be the best time of the year to do it!
Table of contents
Upcoming Schedule
Power Ratings
Big Ten Standings + Tourney Seedings
Notes on all 18 teams - Catch up on every team this year
Accountability section
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Upcoming Schedule (3/3 - 3/9)
NOTE - all times listed in Eastern Time
Games of the Week
Michigan @ Michigan State - Sun March 9th
Maryland @ Michigan - Wed March 5th
Purdue @ Illinois - Fri March 7th
Nebraska @ Ohio State - Tue March 4th
Ohio State @ Indiana - Sat March 8th
Monday March 3rd
UCLA @ Northwestern - 9:00 - FS1
Tuesday March 4th
Rutgers @ Purdue - 7:00 - Peacock
Nebraska @ Ohio State - 9:00 - Peacock
Indiana @ Oregon - 9:00 - FS1
Wednesday March 5th
Maryland @ Michigan - 6:30 - Big Ten Network
Wisconsin @ Minnesota - 8:30 - Big Ten Network
Washington @ USC - 10:30 - Big Ten Network
Thursday March 6th
Michigan State @ Iowa - 8:00 - FS1
Friday March 7th
Purdue @ Illinois - 8:00 - FOX
Saturday March 8th
Penn State @ Wisconsin - 1:00 - Peacock
Northwestern @ Maryland - 3:00 - Peacock
Ohio State @ Indiana - 3:45 - CBS
USC @ UCLA - 8:00 - FOX
Sunday March 9th
Michigan @ Michigan State - 12:00 - CBS
Iowa @ Nebraska - 12:30 - FOX
Minnesota @ Rutgers - 1:00 - Big Ten Network
Oregon @ Washington - 3:00 - Big Ten Network
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Team Rating
For transparency sake, this is not a power ranking that relies only on how teams have looked so far. My rating takes into account how teams have looked but also factors in where I think teams end up by the end of the year. This allows me to not feel the need to overreact to any individual game as I think that does happen a lot in college basketball. This is more of just ‘best team’ rather than ‘best resume’.
Tier 1
Michigan State
Maryland
Wisconsin
Purdue
Michigan
I’ve been a skeptic at times, but Michigan State continues to find ways to win games, and at some point, that just is what it is. I still have some questions about their outlook in March, but unfortunately, I feel that same exact way about every single Big Ten team. These are the 5 teams that at the moment I have the most “trust” in.
Tier 2
UCLA
Oregon
Illinois
These 3 teams are I think on a game to game basis a little lower than the 5 above, but at the same time, I wouldn’t be shocked if any of these 3 have the longest tourney run. All 3 to me have high ceilings, but at the same time, they have shown lower floors. If there is anything to look to for Oregon and Illinois, it is that they may be starting to peak at the same time.
Tier 3
Ohio State
Nebraska
Indiana
The bubble teams. I don’t trust any of these teams, although they have shown the flashes of being a good team. It wouldn’t surprise me if all 3 or none of these teams made it to the tournament.
Tier 4
Northwestern
Rutgers
USC
Minnesota
Iowa
Penn State
Two of these teams will not make the Big Ten tournament. One of them will be Penn State, which means one of the other 5 will (although I think Nebraska actually could miss it as well). The non Penn State teams in this tier to me are extremely interchangeable and my views on them seem to be constantly changing.
Tier 5
Washington
Washington.
Team Rating History
An accountability section, this just shows where I have the team ratings week to week. It’s then easier to see my thought process throughout the year so that when the season ends, I can look back and try to see how to improve in my analysis.
To get access to all of my content for the year, make sure to subscribe to get them sent directly to your email!
Past Week Content
Matt Painter Interview, Explained
Subscribe for even more Big Ten basketball breakdowns and to gain access to all videos, sent directly to your email! I also have a free weekly newsletter recapping the week in the Big Ten
Subscribe for even more Big Ten basketball breakdowns and to gain access to all videos, sent directly to your email! I also have a free weekly newsletter recapping the week in the Big Ten
Big Ten Standings
We’re getting to that point in the season where Big Ten tournament titles and seedings are in play. Below is BIG TEN conference record standings.
Michigan State 15-3
Michigan 14-4
Maryland 12-6
Purdue 12-6
Wisconsin 12-6
UCLA 11-7
Illinois 11-8
Oregon 10-8
Indiana 9-9
Ohio State 8-10
Minnesota 7-11
Nebraska 7-11
Northwestern 7-11
Rutgers 7-11
Iowa 6-12
USC 6-12
Penn State 5-14
Washington 4-14
TEAM NOTES
With March right around the corner, this week will just be what teams need to do to find their way into the tournament, or where they are projected to be. I’m going to be basing a lot of this on bracketmatrix.com
At the time of writing, I don’t think 100% of brackets have been updated to reflect Sunday results. There are currently 85 brackets submitted. Bracketmatrix may not be 100% accurate, but I do think it gives a very good baseline of where teams are at.
NOTE - BTT means Big Ten Tournament
Team (RECORD, CONF RECORD) #Power Ranking
Last week results
ILLINOIS (19-11, 11-8) #8
81-61 W vs Iowa
93-73 W @ Michigan
Best Seed Rank - 6
Worst Seed Rank - 9
Average Seed Rank - 7.91
This is one I’m not 100% sure all brackets have accounted for their win over Michigan. Illinois feels very much live to end up on the 7 seed, which would be big to have to avoid a 1 seed early in the tournament.
INDIANA (18-11, 9-9) #11
83-78 W vs Penn State
78-62 W @ Washington
Best Seed Rank - 10
Worst Seed Rank - Not Ranked
Average Seed Rank - 11.09
If the season ended right now, IU would find themselves in the field. They have two opportunities this week to really cement themselves, with matchups against Oregon and Ohio State.
IOWA (15-14, 6-12) #16
81-61 L @ Illinois
68-57 L @ Northwestern
Iowa currently does not show up in any brackets.
Iowa is currently the last team to make the Big Ten Tournament. They play Michigan State and Nebraska this week. They need to at least match what USC does this week. 2-0 would put them in the BTT, but 0-2 would put them in a spot where they most likely do not make it.
MARYLAND (22-7, 12-6) #2
58-55 L vs Michigan State
68-64 W @ Penn State
Best Seed Rank - 4
Worst Seed Rank - 7
Average Seed Rank - 5.36
At this point, Maryland seems pretty destined for the 5 seed. A win at Michigan this week could maybe boost them up.
MICHIGAN (22-7, 14-4) #5
84-82 W vs Rutgers
93-73 L vs Illinois
Best Seed Rank - 2
Worst Seed Rank - 5
Average Seed Rank - 3.41
Michigan is directly on the 3/4 border right now. They have two big time matchups this week against Maryland and Michigan State. At this point in the season, 1-2 games won’t affect seeding too much, but Michigan is one of the teams that could probably move a bit based on this weeks results if they win.
MICHIGAN STATE (24-5, 15-3) #1
58-55 W @ Maryland
71-62 W vs Wisconsin
Best Seed Rank - 1
Worst Seed Rank - 2
Average Seed Rank - 1.99
At this point, it feels like a long shot for them to get a 1 seed. They probably would have to win the Big Ten Tournament to have a chance. At the same time, it seems extremely unlikely they fall to a 3 seed.
MINNESOTA (15-14, 7-11) #15
75-63 L vs Northwestern
67-65 W @ Nebraska
Minnesota is not featured in any brackets.
Minnesota has done a good job of putting themselves in a spot to make the Big Ten Tournament, which wasn’t always the case. Running through some of the scenarios, it seems extremely likely that the Gophers make the BTT. Basically everything would have to break against them this week because they own a lot of the tiebreakers.
NEBRASKA (17-12, 7-11) #10
49-46 L vs Michigan
67-65 L vs Minnesota
Best Seed Rank - 10
Worst Seed Rank - Not Ranked
Average Seed Rank - 10.6
Nebraska continues to hang on, despite not showing up this week on the court. They went 0-2 on their home court, with one of them coming to Minnesota. They have a REALLY important matchup against bubble team Ohio State this week.
NORTHWESTERN (16-13, 7-11) #12
75-63 W @ Northwestern
68-57 W vs Iowa
Northwestern is currently not featured in any brackets.
Northwestern is in a good spot to make the Big Ten Tournament. They own most of the tiebreakers out of the 6 teams competing for the final spot. A win this week would guarantee them a spot.
OHIO STATE (16-13, 8-10) #9
69-61 L @ UCLA
87-82 W @ USC
Best Seed Rank - 10
Worst Seed Rank - Not Ranked
Average Seed Rank - 11.19
Right now Ohio State is THE last team to make the field. Getting the win over USC was massive this past week. Now they have two extremely important games this week. There are 3 Big Ten teams on the bubble - Ohio State, Nebraska, and Indiana
Ohio State plays both Nebraska and Indiana this week.
OREGON (21-8, 10-8) #7
77-73 W @ Wisconsin
82-61 W vs USC
Best Seed Rank - 4
Worst Seed Rank - 7
Average Seed Rank - 5.72
Oregon is on the border of the 5/6 line right now. They play Washington and Indiana this week, opportunities to try and creep up to a for sure 5 seed.
PENN STATE (15-15, 5-14) #17
83-78 L @ Indiana
68-64 L vs Maryland
Penn State is not featured in any brackets. They also have been eliminated from making the Big Ten Tournament. Their game against Wisconsin this week is purely for pride.
PURDUE (20-9, 12-6) #4
76-66 W vs UCLA
Best Seed Rank - 3
Worst Seed Rank - 5
Average Seed Rank - 4.14
Purdue is on the 4/5 border, but they also aren’t too far off from being a solid 4 seed. A 3 seed seems out of the picture barring a Big Ten Tournament run.
RUTGERS (14-15, 7-11) #13
84-82 L @ Michigan
Rutgers is not in any brackets.
They are currently the 14 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. A win this week would guarantee them a spot. Going 0-2 would still take a lot of other scenarios to happen for them to miss it.
UCLA (20-9, 11-7) #6
76-66 L @ Purdue
Best Seed Rank - 5
Worst Seed Rank - 8
Average Seed Rank - 6.52
UCLA is anywhere really from a 6 to an 8 seed, but it feels like that area is pretty packed together. They should want to avoid that 8 seed at all costs.
USC (14-15, 6-12) #14
87-82 L vs Ohio State
82-61 L @ Oregon
USC is not in any brackets. They are also currently not in the Big Ten Tournament.
Right now, it most likely comes down to USC or Iowa to miss the Big Ten Tournament. Losing against Washington this week would make it really hard for them to make it. They have to win at minimum one game this week or their season is done.
WASHINGTON (13-16, 4-14) #18
88-62 L @ Wisconsin
78-62 L vs Indiana
They are not in any brackets. They also are eliminated from the Big Ten Tournament. Their games this week are purely for pride.
WISCONSIN (22-7, 12-6) #3
88-62 W vs Washington
71-62 L @ Michigan State
Best Seed Rank - 2
Worst Seed Rank - 3
Average Seed Rank - 2.21
They are the last 2 seed, although there is a bit of a gap between them and the top 3 seed. Getting wins this week should help keep them on that 2 line.
Games Watched/Accountability Section
This is what I will call the 2nd accountability section. I may be wrong on numerous takes throughout the year, but I want to always at least be informed with my reasoning. This involves me watching and breaking down all 18 teams. So each week I’ll put up how many total games I have watched from every team. I cover Purdue individually on Boilers In The Stands which does require me to watch every Purdue game.
Added note, I only count a game as being watched if it has my entire attention. I may have games on a 2nd screen that I peak at, but it only gets count as watched if it is my main focus.
