Big Ten Basketball Weekly Recap (12/9)
Big Ten play was back and better than ever
Big Ten play started out and finished with a BANG. The first game of Big Ten play ended with Josh Dix hitting a 35 foot fadeaway for the Hawkeyes to top Northwestern. The week ended with Dylan Andrews recognizing the bank was open with his game winner against Oregon.
I’m starting to feel more comfortable with my rankings of teams. Teams within a tier are still fuzzy, but pretty clear tiers have started to emerge for me. What’s funny with the Big Ten this year though is that it may be useless in a month.
Above is Kenpom’s ratings for the Big Ten. At the time of this writing -
No teams are in the top 10 nationally
7 teams are between 12 and 22
11 teams are in the top 50
5 teams between 61 and 111
Having 7 teams within 10 spots of each other is wild. What this more or less says right now is that if any of those teams played on a neutral floor, neither team would be favored by a full point in any of them. The top of the Big Ten features a lot of teams that have shown a great ceiling but also ways that they aren’t able to reach it. Good and bad for every team.
Table of contents
Upcoming Schedule
Power Ranking
Notes from the week
Accountability section
To get access to all of my content for the week (and throughout the year), make sure to subscribe to get them sent directly to your email!
Upcoming Schedule (12/9 - 12/15)
NOTE - all times listed in Eastern Time
Monday December 9th
Minnesota @ Indiana - 6:30 - Big Ten Network
Tuesday December 10th
Penn State @ Rutgers - 7:00 - Peacock
Wisconsin @ Illinois - 9:00 - Peacock
Michigan vs Arkansas (neutral) - 9:00 - ESPN
Washington vs Eastern Washington - 11:00 - Big Ten Network
Wednesday December 11th
NONE
Thursday December 12th
Iowa vs Iowa State - 7:30 - FS1
Friday December 13th
Indiana @ Nebraska - 8:00 - FOX
Saturday December 14th
Purdue vs Texas A&M (Neutral) - 12:00 - CBS
Penn State vs Coppin State - 12:30 - Big Ten Network
Ohio State @ Auburn - 1:00 - ESPN2
Wisconsin @ Butler - 2:30 - Big Ten Network
Rutgers vs Seton Hall - 3:00 - FOX
UCLA @ Arizona - 3:00 - ESPN2
Illinois vs Tennessee - 5:30 - FOX
Sunday December 15th
Iowa vs New Orleans - 2:00 - Big Ten Network
Northwestern vs Georgia Tech (Neutral) - 4:00 - Big Ten Network
Oregon vs Stephen F Austin - 6:00 - Big Ten Network
USC vs Montana State - 8:00 - Big Ten Plus
Power Ranking
For transparency sake, this is not a ranking based fully on what has been shown this year, but rather a mix of what teams have shown combined with where I think teams will get to.
Tier 1 - Tourney Bids
UCLA
Oregon
Purdue
Michigan
Illinois
Maryland
Michigan State
Penn State
Wisconsin
A big shake up from last week. Tiers got cut from 4 to 3, with the top two tiers more or less merging. UCLA might just have the best defense in the conference, and I think the offense gets top 30ish level by the end of the season.
I really buy Michigan’s defense will be top 15 or so this year, and I think the offense only improves from here. I was close to putting them 2. Maryland, Michigan State, and Penn State are all the similar teams to me. All 3 rely on the defense to fuel their offense, but all 3 have good defenses and good offenses.
I was wrong on Wisconsin. Coming into the season I had them 17th (see below) because of my concerns of who emerged from the guard room. They are way better than that. However, the defense is really struggling, and I think that’s what puts them at the bottom of this tier.
Tier 2 - Bubbly
Indiana
Ohio State
Iowa
Northwestern
Rutgers
Nebraska
When I say bubbly, I’m talking about just my own eye test on them. Metrics/resumes may have some of these teams in the field. The ceilings for all of these teams are to be competing within tier 1, but they also have bigger questions to me than the teams in tier 1.
I’m shocked Indiana is here, but that’s how it goes. Mike Woodson needs to adjust and Myles Rice has to be good. If those two things happen, Indiana makes the tourney.
If I had to divide this tier into 2, I would split it right before Rutgers. There are real major concerns about this Rutgers team. The defense is very bad, especially on the interior, and if Harper isn’t creating then the offense suffers immensely. Rutgers and Nebraska are better than the teams below, but I worry they could fall eventually.
Tier 3 - 3 teams miss the Big Ten Tournament
USC
Washington
Minnesota
I said last week that Washington looked like they were improving, and then USC goes and wins by 24 against them. These 3 teams may flip all the time.
Regardless, these 3 teams have really struggled on both ends of the ball, and they feel very clearly like the bottom 3 teams.
Power Rankings History
An accountability section, this just shows where I have the power rankings week to week. It is then easier to see my thought process throughout the year so that when the season ends, I can look back and try to see how to improve in my analysis.
Weekly Notes
This is just the space for me to put out anything that I want for each team. Last week results, things that stood out, things I’m looking for, etc.
Team (RECORD, CONF RECORD) #Power Ranking
Last week results
ILLINOIS (6-2, 0-1) #5
70-66 L @ Northwestern
Illinois had it’s worst offensive game of the season so far, but the defense held its own. If not for a Nick Martinelli takeover, Illinois might be 1-0 in Big Ten play. Kasparas Jakucionis and Tomislav Ivisic gives this Illinois team one of the best pick and roll duos in the conference. I want to be bough in on this defense. My concern is that they’ve only played one top 75 offense in the country and let up 100. A lot of the buy games were against bad offenses that took bad shots. I just need to see it a bit more.
INDIANA (7-2, 0-0) #10
97-71 W vs Sam Houston St
76-57 W vs Miami (OH)
Indiana had the only two buy games in the conference this week, and they took care of business in both of them. Luke Goode went 5/7 for 3 against Sam Houston, a promising sign that he is through the shooting slump. Even better than that is Myles Rice put together 2 great games in a row. He needs to be the engine for this team.
IOWA (7-2, 1-1) #12
80-79 W vs Northwestern
85-83 L @ Michigan
Iowa sure knew how to have exciting games this week as both teams came down to a buzzer beater attempt. Josh Dix made the first one and Iowa missed the second one to end up 1-1.
This is a team that didn’t have Seydou Traore, their best defender, for either game and they were still competitive. Payton Sandfort went 8/19 from 3 last week as his season average is now up to 31.5%. He is dealing with something with his shooting wrist, but there is no way Sandfort stays at that percentage long.
MARYLAND (8-2, 1-1) #6
83-59 W vs Ohio State
83-78 L @ Purdue
This is a very good team, and they are showing that their ceiling is winning the Big Ten. They dominated Ohio State for 40 minutes and held a lead with 10 minutes left against Purdue. Derik Queen is playing like one of the best players in the country, let alone one of the best freshmen. He had double doubles in both games while averaging 21.5 points in his first two Big Ten games.
After dominating bad competition earlier in the year, Maryland now has shown they can compete with the best. The backcourt trio of Gillespie/Rice/Miguel is a dynamic group that all really raise the level for the Terrapins.
MICHIGAN (8-1, 2-0) #4
67-64 W @ Wisconsin
85-83 W vs Iowa
Michigan had probably the best week in the Big Ten (maybe UCLA). They knocked off Wisconsin on the road and then picked up a win at home against Iowa.
Most importantly, Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin look like the duo they were recruited to be. The 2 7 footers have really started figuring out their pick and roll game with Wolf running the show. His fluidity and handle at that size are unreal, and it forces teams into so many tough matchups. You can watch more on that below.
MICHIGAN STATE (8-2, 2-0) #7
90-72 W @ Minnesota
89-52 W vs Nebraska
Michigan State shot 20/45 (44.4%) from 3 in the two games and dominated both. Shots are starting to fall a bit, and if that happens for Michigan State, they can compete at the top of the Big Ten. Jase Richardson continues to be a star freshman, and Jaxon Kohler really stood out to me this week. The big question surrounding this team was the big room. Jaxon Kohler has shown he is option 1 out of it, which alleviates some pressure on the other bigs.
MINNESOTA (6-4, 0-1) #18
90-72 L vs Michigan State
Minnesota had their 3rd best offensive performance of the year, but it was by far their worst defensive performance of the year. This team has kept games close by playing solid defense and slowing the game down a ton. If the defense isn’t there, it makes it really hard for this team to be in games.
NEBRASKA (6-2, 0-1) #15
89-52 L @ Michigan State
Like the team above them, Nebraska also got destroyed by Michigan State. In a common theme on the week, Nebraska also had their worst defensive performance of the year against Michigan State. The concerning thing for Nebraska though was that Michigan State didn’t beat them from the 3 point line. Michigan State went 16/23 inside the paint against a defense designed specifically to take away the paint.
NORTHWESTERN (7-3, 1-1) #13
80-79 L @ Iowa
70-66 W vs Illinois
Brooks Barnhizer and Nick Martinelli have emerged as one of the most fun duos in the Big Ten. They both have old school games that allow them to be crafty in the mid and low post. Brooks Barnhizer has also started to really run the show offensively while being one of the best off ball defenders in the conference.
Jalen Leach has stepped up as a 3rd scorer, but the offense hasn’t been great for Northwestern. They are among the top teams in the country at taking non rim 2s, one of the least efficient shots in the game. It doesn’t mean Martinelli and Barnhizer should go away from them, but the efficiency is going to suffer some if Northwestern has to go to those as much as they currently do.
OHIO STATE (6-3, 1-1) #11
83-59 L @ Maryland
80-66 W vs Rutgers
The team that I have the least confidence in my evaluation in has once again left me not knowing about this team. Maryland dominated them from start to finish, but Ohio State bounced back with a solid win over Rutgers and feature one of the bets point guards in the conference in Bruce Thornton. What to make of them?
I think metrics are starting to get closer to where I think of them which is a solid offense that can defend but isn’t great at it. This gets trickier working under the assumption that Aaron Bradshaw may not be back for a while. Can the Devin Royal at the 5 lineup work defensively. The Buckeyes have had to go to it. Devin Royal has been awesome, but will he hold up enough defensively when he has to play the 5.
OREGON (9-1, 1-1) #2
68-60 W @ USC
73-71 L vs UCLA
Oregon suffered their first loss of the year, but they’ve had a great start to the year. This is a much more balanced team that can rely on one of a few guys to go score each night. The defense has been good overall, and the offense is the same. They continue to struggle in 1st halves, and it almost cost them against USC.
Jackson Shelstad and Keeshawn Barthelemy have developed into the closer for this Oregon offense. Shelstad played one of his best halves of the season in the 2nd against USC, getting downhill and to the foul line a lot. Nate Bittle continues to be a very reliable option at the 5 spot.
PENN STATE (8-1, 1-0) #8
81-70 W vs Purdue
Penn State dominated Purdue, way more than what the score indicates. Their pressure defense tore Purdue apart, not allowing them to be comfortable for even a second. It isn’t the defense carrying though, as the offense has been equally as good. They have efficient shooters alongside a dominant pick and roll duo.
They showed that they’re for real with how they completely disrupted arguably the best offense in the conference in Purdue. Penn State is now forcing a turnover on 24.5% of possessions, which is 5th in the country. This team looks every bit the part of a tourney team. Mike Rhoades is really building something.
PURDUE (8-2, 1-1) #3
81-70 L @ Penn State
83-78 W vs Maryland
Purdue turned the ball over on 33% of their possessions against Penn State. One out 3 possessions, they simply did not get a shot up at all. Purdue is a very efficient shooting team, but turnovers against athleticism have been very bad in two games now, the two games they’ve lost. That combined with not hitting open shots is a very very bad recipe to win.
They did bounce back against a good Maryland squad, and Braden Smith had one of those games where you leave feeling like maybe he’s the best point guard in the country. I’m not sure who will step up game to game outside of Smith and TKR, but those two alone will keep Purdue in lots of games.
RUTGERS (5-4, 0-1) #14
80-66 L @ Ohio State
I think it is getting close to time to start panicking. This Rutgers team did not look the part for much of the game against Ohio State. Dylan Harper still ended up with 18 points and 4 assists, but it was hard to get contributions from really anyone else. Ohio State the entire night but two on the ball to force it out of Harper’s hands, but generally there were no shooters around him that could take advantage. Credit to Derkack for knocking down 2 of them, but teams still won’t respect it.
The defense has been way worse than expected. Ohio State shot 26/40 from 2 while being one of the teams that does not have an interior size advantage over Rutgers.
UCLA (8-1, 2-0) #1
69-58 W vs Washington
73-71 W @ Oregon
Step one of UCLA’s tough stretch was a success. On 4 consecutive weekends they play Oregon, Arizona, North Carolina, and Gonzaga. Oregon was the first really big test, and UCLA found a way to get the win. They continue to speed teams up and force a lot of turnovers, but the shooting really came through in this one. Eric Dailey looks like a potential star in the making for the Bruins, being able to do a bit of everything offensively.
UCLA is a team with an elite defense and solid shot makers. The issue is that their shot diet is naturally going to be a lot of tougher shots, which puts pressure on the shot makers.
USC (5-3) #17
68-60 L vs Oregon
85-61 W @ Washington
This week was the best USC has looked all season. They hung around with Oregon and led pretty late into the game. Desmond Claude put up 20+ points in both games this week and has maybe started to turn the corner on the year. Saint Thomas had his best game of the year against Washington with 19 points and 4 assists. This team confuses me.
WASHINGTON (6-1) #16
69-58 L @ UCLA
85-61 L vs USC
If Great Osobor in a week goes 8/20 from the field, 7/15 from the free throw line, and has 12 turnovers in two games, Washington is probably going to be in trouble. This team starts with him but he hasn’t had the success quite yet with it.
Zoom Diallo has quickly turned into arguably the most consistent player for the Huskies. He’s creating his own shot well while facilitating and not turning the ball over. Washington needs him to be good. The offense for them overall has really struggled this season, and the defense is most likely going to slip a bit too.
WISCONSIN (8-2, 0-2) #9
67-64 L vs Michigan
88-74 L @ Marquette
Two losses on the week for the Badgers, but they were against two very good teams. John Tonje and John Blackwell have really emerged as the go to duo on the backcourt, and they are both so good at getting downhill. Defense is what hurt the Badgers in both games as they are now the 3rd worst defense in the conference per Kenpom.
Against Michigan, they had no answers once Michigan went to the 7 footers pick and rolls throughout the entire second half. Against Marquette, the Badgers had trouble protecting the rim and the paint. This offense can be very good, but the defense needs to pick up to being at least solid.
Games Watched/Accountability Section
This is what I will call the 2nd accountability section. I may be wrong on numerous takes throughout the year, but I want to always at least be informed with my reasoning. This involves me watching and breaking down all 18 teams. So each week I’ll put up how many total games I have watched from every team.
Added note, I only count a game as being watched if it has my entire attention. I may have games on a 2nd screen that I peak at, but it only gets count as watched if it is my main focus.
Almost at 100 games!