Big Ten Basketball Weekly Newsletter (1/13)

What happened in the last week of Big Ten basketball?

It only took two months, but it feels to me that there is starting to be some separation within the Big Ten. The middle is still a lot of teams that are varying degrees of good and bad, but there are some clearly better and worse teams. We’re only about 25% of the way through conference play though, so there is lots of time for things to change. Subscribe below to get access to all of my coverage!

Table of contents

• Upcoming Schedule

• Power Ranking

• Christmas gifts for every team

• Accountability section

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Upcoming Schedule (1/13-1/19)

NOTE - all times listed in Eastern Time

Games of the Week

• Illinois @ Michigan State - Sunday, Jan 19

• Purdue @ Oregon - Saturday, Jan 18

• Northwestern @ Michigan - Sunday, Jan 19

• Iowa @ UCLA - Friday, Jan 17

• Nebraska @ Maryland - Sunday, Jan 19

Monday January 13th

• Minnesota @ Maryland - 6:30 - Big Ten Network

• UCLA @ Rutgers - 6:30 - FS1

• (NOTE - why are the only two Big Ten games scheduled for the same time?)

Tuesday January 14th

• Illinois @ Indiana - 7:00 - Peacock

• Ohio State @ Wisconsin - 9:00 - Peacock

• Iowa @ USC - 10:30 - FS1

Wednesday January 15th

• Penn State @ Michigan State - 7:30 - Big Ten Network

• Purdue @ Washington - 9:30 - Big Ten Network

Thursday January 16th

• Michigan @ Minnesota - 7:00 - FS1

• Rutgers @ Nebraska - 9:00 - FS1

• Maryland @ Northwestern - 9:00 - Big Ten Network

Friday January 17th

• Indiana @ Ohio State - 8:00 - FOX

• Iowa @ UCLA - 9:00 - FS1

Saturday January 18th

• Purdue @ Oregon - 3:00 - NBC/Peacock

• Wisconsin @ USC - 3:00 - Big Ten Network

Sunday January 19th

• Nebraska @ Maryland - 12:00 - Big Ten Network

• Illinois @ Michigan State - 12:00 - CBS

• Northwestern @ Michigan - 2:00 - Big Ten Network

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Team Rating

For transparency sake, this is not a power ranking that relies only on how teams have looked so far. My rating takes into account how teams have looked but also factors in where I think teams end up by the end of the year. This allows me to not feel the need to overreact to any individual game as I think that does happen a lot in college basketball.

Tier 1 - Title Contender Caliber

1. Michigan

2. Illinois

3. Purdue

4. Michigan State

Now Illinois loss to USC puts a little damper on the Big Ten title specifically, but I still think talent and team wise, they are very much in the mix. It’s only taken 10 weeks, but a true top 4 has emerged to me. All 4 of these teams have been awesome on both ends of the ball over the last handful of games. At the end of the day, Michigan has the most unstoppable action out of all the teams in their Wolf/Goldin pick and roll which gives them the slight edge to me.

Tier 2 - Tourney Caliber

5. Oregon

6. UCLA

7. Wisconsin

8. Maryland

To me, these feel like 4 teams that are going to make the tournament and in theory could slide up into tier one. UCLA had the farthest fall in ranking, but it was probably a bit overdue for me. All 4 of these teams to me can beat anyone in the conference on any given day.

Tier 3 - Varying Degrees of Bubble

9. Northwestern

10. Iowa

11. Penn State

12. Indiana

13. USC

14. Nebraska

15. Ohio State

I know Northwestern is 1-4. I think the team is still good though, and I do think they turn it around. By the end of the year, I expect them to be a very competitive team. This is the largest tier that I have, featuring a lot of teams that have upside but have very clear flaws as well. USC is probably the surprise team (although maybe not as much now after the win against Illinois). They continue to improve and I think that continues to happen

Tier 4 - Three Teams Miss Big Ten Tourney

16. Rutgers

17. Washington

18. Minnesota

All three of their seasons are essentially over. All have the capability of getting a big time win or two. Rutgers has no defense and no supporting cast, while Ace Bailey hasn’t quite been as good as advertised. Washington can be great one game and look like one of the worst power conference teams the next. Minnesota is Minnesota.

Team Rating History

An accountability section, this just shows where I have the team ratings week to week. It’s then easier to see my thought process throughout the year so that when the season ends, I can look back and try to see how to improve in my analysis.

To get access to all of my content for the year, make sure to subscribe to get them sent directly to your email!

Past Week Content

In addition to semi-daily previews, I also have some film breakdowns

TEAM NOTES

This is a section for me to put down thoughts on all 18 Big Ten teams, and also recap how they did the previous week.

With this being a pretty quiet week, there won’t be as many notes as usual. Instead I’ll give a positive and negative of every team.

Team (RECORD, CONF RECORD) #Power Ranking

• Last week results

ILLINOIS (12-4, 4-2) #2

• 91-52 W vs Penn State

• 82-72 L vs USC

After the Penn State game the reaction was “Wow Illinois is SO good. They beat Penn State by 40 without Jakucionis”

Then they lost to USC without Jakucionis and the reaction was “Is this team even good without him”

At the end of the day, the USC loss is what it is. It doesn’t mean their season is over or they aren’t one of the best teams in the conference. It does make winning the Big Ten title just a bit tougher though. The one concern from the USC game for me was that the interior defense was so bad. Some of that starts with the perimeter defense allowing drives, but USC went 19/27 at the rim. Illinois’ defense is designed to take away shots at the rim and force mid ranges.

INDIANA (13-4, 4-2) #12

• 82-69 W vs USC

• 85-60 L @ Iowa

Indiana feels destined to go 9-11 or 10-10 in Big Ten play. They’ll beat teams they’re supposed to, and then lose the games they’re supposed to lose. 10-10 will be on the bubble for Indiana, and then Mike Woodson could in theory make the tournament, and then it becomes a bit harder to fire him.

It really comes down to guard play and interior defense to me for IU. Against USC, Galloway and Rice both had great games, and the interior defense was solid. Against Iowa, the opposite was true.

IOWA (12-4, 3-2) #10

• 97-87 W vs Nebraska

• 85-60 W vs Indiana

Iowa is looking like a normal Iowa team at this point, but the efficiency that they shoot at is wild. They’re number 10 in both 2P% and 3P% on the year. The defense is what it is, there’ll be some good flashes but overall it’ll struggle. The biggest flaw of this Iowa team is their inability to rebound. They’re #294 in ORB% and #283 in DRB%.

After struggling to start the year from 3, Payton Sandfort is shooting 41.9% from 3 in conference play. He maybe hasn’t quite been at the consistent superstar level the Hawkeyes have wanted, but he’s starting to get back into form.

If you want to talk about efficiency, look no further than Josh Dix.

#17 in eFG%, #14 in TS%, 63.6% from 2, and 47.9% from 3. That is pretty absurd and you could argue he is Iowa’s best player right now. He has scored in double figures in every game since November 22nd (10 games).

You can make the argument he is Iowa’s best player, although Owen Freeman has been awesome as well.

MARYLAND (12-4, 2-3) #8

• 79-61 W vs UCLA

Maryland is the team I’m most worried that I’m underrating right now. At the same time, they are 0-3 on the road this year, and it isn’t easy to win on the road.

In the game against UCLA, Ja’Kobi Gillespie was incredible. He had 27 points on 7/13 shooting and 9/9 from the free throw line. He gives Maryland a true big 3.

One thing I’ll be monitoring is Derik Queen in conference play.

The assists are way down, the turnovers are way up, and he is shooting much worse from 2 in conference play than the non conference.

MICHIGAN (13-3, 5-0) #1

• 94-75 W @ UCLA

• 91-75 W vs Washington

How do you stop the Danny Wolf/Vladislav Goldin pick and roll? UCLA tried a bunch of different things with no success. Danny Wolf has ran 97 pick and rolls this year per Synergy. He is in the 93%ile of efficiency on those. It has simply been unstoppable. The only hope if Wolf misses a shot or makes a bad pass.

Michigan may not have a deep team, but their starting 5 is one of the best lineups in the country. They can play elite defense, shoot the ball well, have an unstoppable pick and roll offense, and still have the other guys be able to create.

Also, shoutout Nimari Burnett for being the most efficient player in the country based on true shooting percentage.

MICHIGAN STATE (14-2, 5-0) #4

• 88-54 W vs Washington

• 78-68 W @ Northwestern

Michigan State has no won 9 in a row, with the last 8 wins being by 10+ points. The defense has been so good, and the offense has taken some leaps. The depth of their team is evident, and it can make it extremely difficult to game plan. Jeremy Fears has really started taking control of the offense by pushing the ball and getting MSU out and running.

I must admit, I still have some concerns with MSU. Their best wins on the year are a neutral against UNC, at home vs Nebraska, @ Ohio State, and @ Northwestern. Don’t get me wrong, those are still solid wins, but I want to see them go up again against a team closer to elite level. The good news for me? They play Illinois at home this Sunday.

MINNESOTA (8-8, 0-5) #18

• 89-88 L vs Ohio State

• 80-59 L @ Wisconsin

If the season wasn’t already over before this week, it definitely is now. The Ohio State loss was one of the worst losses I’ve ever seen. They had what felt like 10 different chances to win but couldn’t hit a free throw, couldn’t rebound, and fouled up 2 to allow Ohio State to tie it. The rest of the schedule in January is brutal. Minnesota’s best chance to win the rest of the year is at home vs Washington.

NEBRASKA (12-4, 2-3) #14

• 97-87 L @ Iowa

• 104-68 L @ Purdue

The Iowa loss is going to haunt Nebraska a bit. The Purdue one is what it is, a game where Purdue didn’t miss. But Nebraska had every chance to beat Iowa and get a quality road win. The following stat feels very relevant.

Nebraska is 12-0 in games where teams shoot less than 39% from 3. They are 0-4 in games where teams shoot 39% and above from 3. Given how much Nebraska forces teams to shoot 3s, teams that shoot well are pretty much just going to beat Nebraska.

NORTHWESTERN (10-6, 1-4) #9

• 84-80 L @ Penn State

• 79-61 L @ Purdue

I still believe in this Northwestern team, but time is running out FAST. Even as I type this I am starting to feel less and less confident in them and that they should be ranked lower. They are currently 1-6 against top 100 Kenpom teams. They take a lot of tough shots, and if one of Barnhizer or Martinelli don’t have it going, it becomes tough for this team to score. The defense has also taken a bit of a hit.

The one thing I’m holding onto is that Northwestern has played the toughest conference schedule so far. The back half of their schedule gets a bit easier, but they play Maryland and Michigan this week. At minimum one win is basically a necessity.

OHIO STATE (10-6, 2-3) #15

• 89-88 W vs Minnesota

• 73-71 L vs Oregon

Ohio State is one bounce away from being 0-2 last week and 1-4 in conference play. They survived against Minnesota though and almost pulled one out against Oregon. To me it kind of comes down to one simple thing. If Ohio State plays a team that is physical, they are going to struggle. If Ohio State plays a team that is more finesse, that is where they can find success.

During Big Ten play, Torvik has Ohio State as the 15th best team so far. A big thing that has shot up is turnovers. In Big Ten play, Ohio State is turning the ball over on 20.2% of possessions, the worst in the conference. On the entire season, Ohio State turns the ball over on 15.8% of possessions, the 71st best.

OREGON (15-2, 4-2) #5

• 109-77 L vs Illinois

• 83-79 W vs Maryland

Oregon is currently 5-1 in games decided by 4 points or less. It is impressive that they can continually win close games (only loss came on a banked in 3). On the flip side, I haven’t seen them really be able to put a quality team away yet. That’s where the confusion for me comes in. Oregon is a team that is able to win all these close games against good teams, but at the same time, I haven’t seen that' “dominant” level game from them like the top 4 in the conference.

Nate Bittle is one of the best bigs in the conference, Jackson Shelstad is getting out of his slump, and Oregon has depth. They get Purdue at home this week, a pretty important game for both sides.

PENN STATE (12-5, 2-4) #11

• 91-52 L @ Illinois

• 82-81 L vs Oregon

What at one point looked like a top 6 team in the Big Ten to me, Penn State has fallen quickly. Per Torvik, Penn State is the 3rd worst Big Ten team in games played in 2025. A tough schedule and Ace Baldwin being out don’t help, but this team looks far from the team that dominated Purdue.

Penn State I think still has the talent to make the tournament, but they are now 2-5 against top 100 Kenpom teams. They get plenty of good chances soon to get quality wins, but this week they have to take care of business. They have @ MSU (would be a great win if they get the upset) and home vs Rutgers. Have to beat Rutgers.

PURDUE (13-4, 5-1) #3

• 68-50 W @ Rutgers

• 104-68 W vs Nebraska

Purdue showed they can win in multiple ways. They shot a season worst 16.7% from 3 against Rutgers. They still won by 18 on the road. They shot a season best 57.6% from 3 against Nebraska in a 36 point rout.

Braden Smith AVERAGED 14 assists a game this week, while only having 5 turnovers.

Since the new starting lineup of Braden Smith/CJ Cox/Fletcher Loyer/TKR/Caleb Furst happened, that lineup has had a net rating of +50.1. That would be the best lineup in the country if that holds (realistically it’ll drop at some point). The biggest thing is the defense continues to be so much better.

Similar to MSU though, Purdue has been doing this against weaker competition. They get their west coast trip this week at Washington and Oregon. A 2-0 week would be pretty big for the Big Ten title hopes.

RUTGERS (8-8, 1-4) #16

• 75-63 L vs Wisconsin

• 68-50 L vs Purdue

I know Dylan Harper has been sick, but it looked this week like Rutgers gave up. They had a 3 game home stand that in theory could’ve turned the season around. They’re now 0-2 on that, with a game against UCLA that truly is must win.

The defense quietly hasn’t been awful as of late. Has it been Rutgers level elite? No. But it hasn’t been the issue. Since the start of 2025 (granted only 3 games), Rutgers has had the 56th best defense per Torvik. Not awful at all. They’ve had the 300th best offense in the country. This coincides with Dylan Harper being sick which shows just how much he carries the offense. Ace Bailey can make tough shots, but Dylan Harper is the one that pushes this offense into somewhat relevance.

UCLA (11-5, 2-3) #6

• 94-75 L vs Michigan

• 79-61 L @ Maryland

Mick Cronin called out his players and coaching staff, and then got ejected the next game. After beating Gonzaga, UCLA has dropped three straight. The defense has taken a huge regression, and the offense is still just tough shots. If UCLA can’t force turnovers, it becomes very difficult for them to win.

We’re also starting to see that UCLA can get punished by good bigs. Vladislav Goldin had 36 points and then Julian Reese had a 16 point double double.

I do think long term this team will be fine, but they aren’t the Big Ten contender I thought they were. Their next 5 games are

@ Rutgers

vs Iowa

vs Wisconsin

@ Washington

@ USC

4-1 in that stretch will fix a lot of things and give them some room to breathe.

USC (10-6, 2-3) #13

• 82-69 L @ Indiana

• 82-72 W vs Illinois

It was only a matter of time before USC got a big upset. They did just that against Illinois. Despite being 2-3 in Big Ten play, USC has been the 7th best team in Big Ten play per Torvik. Desmond Claude is emerging as an All Big Ten type guy, and the defense has taken a significant jump.

With Illinois not having Jakucionis, USC’s switching defense put a lot of pressure on the guards to make plays that they couldn’t. This USC team still may not be a tourney team, but they’re a team that no one wants to play in the Big Ten I think. They have 2 home games this week against Iowa and Wisconsin. 2-0 this week would put a little more notice on them.

WASHINGTON (10-7, 1-5) #17

• 88-54 L @ Michigan State

• 91-75 L @ Michigan

I think Washington will be happy to not have to go to the state of Michigan again. There isn’t much to say about them this week. They’re a bad team that will have a couple random games that everything clicks.

WISCONSIN (13-3, 3-2) #7

• 75-63 W @ Rutgers

• 80-59 W vs Minnesota

Wisconsin had the easiest week in the Big Ten, and they took care of business against 2 of the bottom 3 teams in the conference. Steven Crowl has flipped a switch over the last 5 games as he has scored 14+ in all of them. The interior defense has also vastly improved as they have the 5th best defense in Big Ten play per Torvik. 7 feels way too low honestly in my ratings. Another good week and I’d expect this team to jump. They’re a sneaky team to win the Big Ten, but they do have to show they can beat a high quality team.

With that said, they only play Purdue/Illinois/Michigan State once more (2 on the road). They also have Maryland on the road. The rest of their schedule doesn’t look too bad compared to the other top teams.

Games Watched/Accountability Section

This is what I will call the 2nd accountability section. I may be wrong on numerous takes throughout the year, but I want to always at least be informed with my reasoning. This involves me watching and breaking down all 18 teams. So each week I’ll put up how many total games I have watched from every team. I cover Purdue individually on Boilers In The Stands which does require me to watch every Purdue game.

Added note, I only count a game as being watched if it has my entire attention. I may have games on a 2nd screen that I peak at, but it only gets count as watched if it is my main focus.