Big Ten Basketball Weekly Newsletter (1/27)

A weekly recap on Big Ten basketball

There were 16 Big Ten games this week as we are about halfway through the Big Ten schedule. There’s only 7 weeks until Selection Sunday, and I don’t think anyone in the bottom half of the Big Ten can feel comfortable right now as the calendar flips to February this week.

Table of contents

• Upcoming Schedule

• Power Ratings

• Big Ten Standings + Tourney Seedings

• Notes on all 18 teams

• Accountability section

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Upcoming Schedule (1/27-2/2)

NOTE - all times listed in Eastern Time

Games of the Week

• Wisconsin @ Maryland - Wednesday Jan 29

• Oregon @ UCLA - Thursday Jan 30

• Michigan State @ USC - Saturday Feb 1

• Ohio State @ Illinois - Sunday Feb 2

Monday January 27th

• Penn State @ Michigan - 6:30 - Big Ten Network

• Iowa @ Ohio State - 8:00 - FS1

• UCLA @ USC - 10:00 - FS1

Tuesday January 28th

• Minnesota @ Michigan State - 8:00 - Peacock

Wednesday January 29th

• Wisconsin @ Maryland - 7:00 - Big Ten Network

• Rutgers @ Northwestern - 9:00 - Big Ten Network

Thursday January 30th

• Ohio State @ Penn State - 6:30 - FS1

• Illinois @ Nebraska - 8:30 - FS1

• Oregon @ UCLA - 10:30 - FS1

Friday January 31st

• Indiana @ Purdue - 8:00 - FOX

Saturday February 1st

• Washington @ Minnesota - 12:00 - Big Ten Network

• Wisconsin @ Northwestern - 2:00 - FS1

• Michigan @ Rutgers - 3:30 - FOX

• Michigan State @ USC - 4:30 - Peacock

Sunday February 2nd

• Ohio State @ Illinois - 1:00 - CBS

• Nebraska @ Oregon - 7:30 - Big Ten Network

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Team Rating

For transparency sake, this is not a power ranking that relies only on how teams have looked so far. My rating takes into account how teams have looked but also factors in where I think teams end up by the end of the year. This allows me to not feel the need to overreact to any individual game as I think that does happen a lot in college basketball.

Tier 1

1. Purdue

2. Michigan State

3. Illinois

4. Michigan

5. Wisconsin

I think the discussion around Michigan State can be fun. They are 17-2, and 8-0 in Big Ten play. They’ve also only beat one sure fire tourney team (Illinois). To be fair to them, they’ve also beat Ohio State, UNC, and Northwestern who are all on the bubble. I think it is fair to have some questions about who they’ve beat, but I also think you have to acknowledge just how dominant they’ve been.

To me, I put Purdue 1 and MSU 2 for one reason. I think Purdue has the (slightly) higher ceiling. I think MSU has the highest floor of any Big Ten team given just how many guys they can trust. Inevitable they’ll most likely drop a game they should win, but I think the statement still stands for me. How you view ceiling vs floor is probably how you view this MSU team in comparison to others. I do think an elite floor means something (they also still have a high ceiling in general).

I think you could also argue Illinois, Michigan, and maybe even Wisconsin have the higher ceiling, but the stability of Michigan State matters.

Recency bias would drop Illinois more, but I do still trust this team and think by the end of the season they are very much back on track. Same for Michigan.

Wisconsin has the argument to be number 3. I just can’t quite get their yet, but it is a lot closer than even 2 weeks ago.

Tier 2

6. Maryland

7. Oregon

8. UCLA

Maryland and Oregon flipped spots for me. Maryland finally won some road games and they won a close game. It felt inevitable, but Oregon dropped a game they probably shouldn’t have. The sky isn’t falling, but the record feels closer at this point to what the eye says it should be. UCLA is quietly on a 3 game winning streak, and I do think we’ve seen the worst of them this year (aside from a random game at some point).

Tier 3

9. Northwestern

10. USC

11. Penn State

12. Ohio State

13. Iowa

14. Indiana

15. Rutgers

16. Nebraska

I have no clue with this tier. Like at all. I don’t think I can confidently say any of these teams are tournament teams. Ohio State has the best resume, and maybe is a bit better than I’ve given them credit for, but I just think their style of play leaves little margin for error.

My main takeaway is I would not be shocked to see only 8 Big Ten teams make the tourney this year. Northwestern and Ohio State feel like the two best chances to me, with most of the others having outside chances.

In terms of ‘which teams do I think will be talked about as the best of this group by the end of the season’, I have confidence Northwestern and USC emerge. The next four I have absolutely no clue on. Rutgers and Nebraska feel like they’re competing for making the Big Ten Tourney at this point.

Tier 4

17. Minnesota

18. Washington

For the first time since week 2 of the season, someone other than Minnesota is ranked last. Minnesota has won 3 games in a row. Someone please talk me out of being bought in on this Gophers squad.

Team Rating History

An accountability section, this just shows where I have the team ratings week to week. It’s then easier to see my thought process throughout the year so that when the season ends, I can look back and try to see how to improve in my analysis.

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Past Week Content

In addition to semi-daily previews, I also have some film breakdowns. My “plan” going forward is to have per week

• 1 free weekly newsletter

• 1 in depth research article (paywall)

• 1 free game breakdown

• 1 gam breakdown (paywall)

Subscribe for even more Big Ten basketball breakdowns and to gain access to all videos, sent directly to your email! I also have a free weekly newsletter recapping the week in the Big Ten

Big Ten Standings

We’re getting to that point in the season where Big Ten tournament titles and seedings are in play. Below is BIG TEN conference record standings.

1. Michigan State 8-0

2. Purdue 8-2

3. Michigan 6-2

4. Wisconsin 6-3

5. Maryland 6-4

6. Illinois 6-4

7. Oregon 5-4

8. UCLA 5-4

9. Indiana 5-5

10. USC 4-4

11. Iowa 4-5

12. Ohio State 3-5

13. Northwestern 3-6

14. Penn State 3-6

15. Minnesota 3-6

16. Rutgers 3-6

17. Nebraska 2-7

18. Washington 1-8

TEAM NOTES

This is a section for me to put down thoughts on all 18 Big Ten teams, and also recap how they did the previous week.

With this being a pretty quiet week, there won’t be as many notes as usual. Instead I’ll give a positive and negative of every team.

Team (RECORD, CONF RECORD) #Power Ranking

• Last week results

ILLINOIS (14-6, 6-4) #3

• 91-70 L vs Maryland

• 83-74 W vs Northwestern

Tomislav Ivisic is out for a period of time with mono (hoping for a quick recovery). Maryland took advantage with 32 paint points against Illinois. Illinois responded the next game by dominating Northwestern from the start.

It’s unfortunate that Illinois hasn’t been full health the last few games, but it is what it is. I think this week shows the inconsistency that Illinois can have.

The other thing I think it highlights is how critical Jakucionis and Ivisic are. Beyond just being the two best players on the team, they are what allow guys like Boswell/White/Humrichous to truly play the best role for themselves. Boswell is great as a secondary ball handler. When Jakucionis is out, Boswell hasn’t been that good as a primary ball handler and decision maker.

Illinois doesn’t have a ton of big depth. Ivisic’s ability to do a bit of everything allows Illinois to be pests on the perimeter defensively, and it also opens up Tre White Cuts or Humrichous kickouts. Illinois has the talent to overcome it (see Northwestern game), but it really feels to me that Jakucionis and Ivisic are the players that allow everyone else on Illinois to be themselves. Illinois has 4 very winnable games coming up. Winning those 4 before home matchups with UCLA and MSU will be important.

INDIANA (14-7, 5-5) #14

• 79-70 L @ Northwestern

• 79-78 L vs Maryland

Indiana continues to more or less beat who they’re supposed to beat and lose the game they’re supposed to lose. Northwestern and Maryland are better teams than Indiana. They lost both of them. That isn’t a super promising sign given their upcoming schedule, but anything can happen, especially in a rivalry game.

The Maryland game is one they definitely will feel like they should’ve won. Really poor late game execution forced IU to take a much tougher last second shot than they wanted.

Something that has really stood out to me is that IU has been really really bad on short mid range shots over the last 5 games. From 4-10 feet, Indiana has been 8/55 (14.5%) on those shots. That is the worst percentage in D1. They have taken about 17.7% of their shots from that distance.

IOWA (13-7, 4-5) #13

• 72-67 L vs Minnesota

• 76-75 W vs Penn State

Iowa probably had the worst week of any Big Ten team with a win this week. Minnesota has been playing better, but dropping a home game to them when you need wins badly is not ideal.

The interior defense continues to be a massive massive issue. Over the last 5 games, teams are shooting 69% at the rim against Iowa on the year (330th) in the country. Teams are also taking 38.8% of their shots at the rim (349th). So basically teams take and make more shots at the rim against this Iowa team than almost any other team in the country. On top of that, Iowa ranked 362nd defending non rim paint 2s, 351st in defending mid range 2s, and 364th (out of 364) in defending corner 3s.

Teams are forcing Iowa to rotate a bunch and just choosing what they want from there. When you combine that with a cold shooting night, that’s how you lose to Minnesota.

MARYLAND (16-5, 6-4) #6

• 91-70 W @ Illinois

• 79-78 W @ Indiana

Coming into this week, Maryland had no true road wins on the season (and only 2 neutral site wins). After this week they now have two true road wins and also won a close game. Maryland is now 3-5 in games decided by 6 points or less.

Ja’Kobi Gillespie is an All Big Ten type guy. He’s been really efficient both as a facilitator and shooter, AND the defense has translated from Belmont. I had him as the highest rated Big Ten transfer this off season, and he is right up there near the top in terms of production.

Julian Reese also put together a very good week. He had 27 points and 17 rebounds against Illinois, and followed it up with a 14-10 double double against Indiana. Those two have felt like the consistent pieces for this team, and then they just need 1 or 2 of Rice/Miguel/Queen. Derik Queen had 25 against Illinois as Maryland punished the interior all night. Rice had 23 and Miguel had 15 against Indiana. That’s the formula right there.

MICHIGAN (14-5, 6-2) #4

• 91-64 L @ Purdue

Dusty May, welcome to the Big Ten. In their lone game this week, it was competitive for maybe 60 seconds. Purdue got out to an insane start and never looked back. This team is still good, but they’ve started to really struggle against physicality.

On the season, Michigan is shooting 68.8% at the rim, the 34th best percentage in the country. In their last 3 games (Minnesota/Northwestern/Purdue), they’ve shot 52.9%, at the rim, the 357th best in the country. Michigan has looked uncomfortable.

It was also evident right away that Michigan was uncomfortable in Mackey Arena as they had a slew of turnovers to start the game. Against Purdue, Michigan turned the ball over on 31% of their possessions, their worst rate all year.

MICHIGAN STATE (17-2, 8-0) #2

• 81-74 W @ Rutgers

What can you say other than this team just continues to win. Even if Michigan State has had one of the easier schedules in the entire conference (in large part because they have all of their tough Big Ten games to close out the season. Their February is a gauntlet), they’re the only team that hasn’t dropped a game to an inferior opponent, and they do have the home win against Illinois on their resume.

Strength in numbers is legit, and I plan on writing about it this week. Even teams that are able to stay close for a while (like Rutgers for 20-25 minutes), Michigan State just always has a run where it seems like the other team is completely gassed and MSU is at full strength. The tempo that MSU plays at can just wear teams out. It isn’t always pretty offense for the Spartans, but they’re going to dominate the glass, dominate the interior, and wear opponents out.

On the season, MSU is shooting 69.0% at the rim (31st best in the country), and they are shooting 51.6% on non-rim paint twos (#5 in the country). The shooting hasn’t consistently been there, but the interior dominance has.

If you want to question what their true ceiling is against good competition, I guess that’s fair and we’ll find out soon enough.

But there is something that cannot be overlooked about a team having a very high floor game to game, and MSU has the highest floor out of all Big Ten teams right now, and that doesn’t feel debatable.

MINNESOTA (11-9, 3-6) #17

• 72-67 W @ Iowa

• 77-69 W vs Oregon

MINNESOTA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Don’t look now, but this is a team on a 3 game winning streak. Do they have realistic opportunity to make the NCAA Tournament? No, probably not. But I do think this team can make the Big Ten Tournament, which would’ve been wild to say even two weeks ago.

So what has changed? The first thing is they are making jumpers. Over the past 3 games, Minnesota is 24/52 on non-rim 2s. That is one of the better rates in the country. Dawson Garcia has headed that as he has had 20+ points in all 3 games.

Minnesota is also just simply getting more quality possessions. They have worked the offensive glass much better over the last 3 games, and turnovers have not been an issue at all. When you combine those things with some timely defense and jump shot making, good results may fall your way.

This run isn’t the *biggest* surprise to me. They felt due to win a close one. Per Torvik, Minnesota has been the 7th best Big Ten team in the month of January. Now we just get to see whether it holds or not.

I also want to shoutout Dawson Garcia. He probably was offered a lot more money to go to a school that had a much better outlook than Minnesota. He decided to stay home though, and although Minnesota hasn’t had the season they wanted, Garcia has had a really special stretch for his hometown school.

NEBRASKA (12-8, 2-7) #16

• 78-73 L vs USC

• 83-55 L @ Wisconsin

Nebraska is now on a 6 game losing streak, and any momentum is long gone. Nebraska went from a bubble team to a team that needs to get some wins to make the Big Ten tournament.

They are now 0-7 when teams shoot more than 39% from 3. They lost their first game of the season though when teams shoot less than 39%. The defense is supposed to be the calling card, and it has been far from that over the last month. Per Torvik, Nebraska has had the 17th best Big Ten offense and 14th best Big Ten defense in the month of January. They’re searching for anything offensively, and the defense hasn’t been anywhere it needs to be. Home against Illinois and at Oregon isn’t the easiest spot to get right, but they have to find a way to get a win this week. Being 2-9 in Big Ten play would all but completely end any hope of a NCAA Tournament.

NORTHWESTERN (12-8, 3-6) #9

• 79-70 W vs Indiana

• 83-74 L @ Illinois

Brooks Barnhizer had his worst game of the season against Illinois following one of his best performances against Indiana. Nick Martinelli finished with 17 against Illinois, but it was a real grind to get there. Teams that can put their big on Martinelli and a good perimeter defender on Barnhizer have really shut off this Northwestern offense.

Above is Northwestern’s remaining schedule. It’s part of the reason I’m still bought in on this team. The Wildcats aren’t good enough to be at the top of the Big Ten, but I do think they’re more competitive than their record indicates. If that is true, I think we start really seeing who this team is over the next week or two, but they have given themselves almost no margin of error.

OHIO STATE (11-8, 3-5) #12

• 73-70 W @ Purdue

Ohio State is the most confusing team in the Big Ten. They lose at home to IU and then go on the road to beat Purdue. They have a couple quality wins that makes them an intriguing bubble team, but they do have to start putting multiple games together and close out games.

Ohio State is an offense built on isos and tough shot making. In the 2nd half, it was there against Purdue, and they get a big win. It’s easier said than done to keep that up though.

The defense has been good enough to keep them in a lot of games though. Their last 3 losses are all by 2 points or less. This is a competitive team that has a defense good enough to let them survive, but it ultimately comes down to what the offense is able to do if they win or not.

OREGON (16-4, 5-4) #7

• 82-71 W vs Washington

• 77-69 L @ Minnesota

Oregon coming out 1-1 against arguably the two worst teams in the conference doesn’t exactly instill confidence for a team that already felt like the resume was better than the product.

I really don’t know what to make of this team. They’re talented with an elite big and guard play, they defend fine and the offense is solid. They just don’t have the gear to put teams away really, and it has resulted in a bunch of close games this year. 3 of their 5 Big Ten wins are by 4 points or less. Torvik has them as the 10th best Big Ten team in the month of January.

PENN STATE (13-7, 3-6) #11

• 80-72 W vs Rutgers

• 76-75 L @ Iowa

The win against Rutgers stopped the bleeding in what basically was a must win situation. They sit 3-6 in Big Ten play with one of the weakest non-con schedules in the country. If they don’t want to be sweating come Selection Sunday, they probably need to get to 11 Big Ten wins. They have an easier schedule coming up, but some of their performances don’t give me confidence in them.

Penn State has been awful on the glass, and especially in the last 6 games where they are 1-5. They are arguably the worst rebounding team in the conference. They make up some of it by forcing turnovers, but that has been their only avenue really in getting stops. During Big Ten play they rank 12th in defensive 3 point percentage and 15th in defensive 2 point percentage. Over the last 5 games, teams have shot 63.7% at the rim, 225th in the country. Teams are also shooting 51.2% in the paint (356th) and 44.4% on mid range shots (350th). It feels weird to say this, but defensively they’ve just been a bit better at executing but have similar issues to Iowa.

PURDUE (16-5, 8-2) #1

• 73-70 L vs Ohio State

• 91-64 W vs Michigan

There is nothing else to say other than the Ohio State loss was a complete 2nd half meltdown. Truthfully though, it doesn’t concern me much. Braden played as bad as he had all year, and Ohio State was on a heater with tough shot making. It just doesn’t worry the outlook of Purdue for me.

That last statement is especially true given what they did to Michigan. The worst thing that could’ve happened to the Wolverines was Purdue losing to Ohio State.

At the time of this writing, Purdue is up to #8 per Kenpom. They have the #8 offense and #22 defense on the season. Per Torvik, in the month of January, Purdue has the 7th best offense and the 8th best defense in the entire country.

There may not be a better two man duo than Braden Smith and TKR in the country. They work perfectly together and just give Purdue the ability to generate open looks at will.

The defense continues to impress. Purdue had 14 STEALS against Michigan as Michigan had 22 total turnovers. There have been plenty of games this year where teams wouldn’t have 14 turnovers against Purdue. Matt Painter’s ability to adjust and change defense in the middle of the season cannot be overlooked.

RUTGERS (10-10, 3-6) #15

• 80-72 L @ Penn State

• 81-74 L vs Michigan State

Any life that Rutgers had after last week is gone as they drop two in a row. Dylan Harper not being 100% has been unfortunate, but Rutgers just simply doesn’t have the personnel to be able to win a lot of games. They’re the only Big Ten team shooting under 50% from 2 in Big Ten play. On the flip side, they haven’t been great at getting stops. Those two together = a disappointing year in New Jersey.

At this point, Rutgers will have to battle a bit to make the Big Ten Tournament.

UCLA (14-6, 5-4) #8

• 85-83 W vs Wisconsin

• 65-60 W @ Washington

UCLA can breathe a bit again as they got an important win over Wisconsin and survived against Washington. Tyler Bilodeau’s injury will be something to monitor.

I think the Washington game epitomizes who this UCLA team is, especially with their best scorer in Bilodeau only playing 3 minutes. 5 players scored 9+ points, and the defense was once again stifling. That’s the recipe for UCLA. Get stops, force turnovers, and get enough shot making to win games. It leads to a lot of close games, but UCLA I think feels confident in those games.

Dylan Andrews has been much better over the last 3 games, something I will be monitoring.

USC (12-7, 4-4) #10

• 78-73 W @ Nebraska

This USC team is a team I still think could sneakily end up on the bubble come March. The trio of Claude/Yates/Thomas continues to be very very good, and although USC is not deep, their 6 man rotation has proven to be a positive.

They still really struggle defensively on the interior, but they have dudes who can just simply go make plays. They have also been rebounding the ball much better as of late.

The concern is that USC has been on a heater in the mid range. In conference play they are shooting 48.1% from the mid range (best in the country) on one of the higher mid range rates. If it holds, this team can hang, but if that goes away I do have concerns about what they turn to.

WASHINGTON (10-10, 1-8) #18

• 82-71 L @ Oregon

• 65-60 L vs UCLA

The season feels all but over for year 1 of Danny Sprinkle. They are on a 6 game losing streak and realistically won’t make the Big Ten tournament.

With that said, no one has had a harder schedule than their last 7 games.

Per my rankings, Washington just played 7 of the 8 best Big Ten teams all in a row. The schedule gets a bit easier now and we’ll see if they can stack some wins. A road win this week against Minnesota would go a long way in potentially making the Big Ten tournament.

WISCONSIN (16-4, 6-3) #5

• 85-83 L @ UCLA

• 83-55 W vs Nebraska

Wisconsin is a close loss against UCLA away from being 7-2 in Big Ten play and on a 9 game winning streak. The offense is absolutely elite, and the duo of John Blackwell and John Tonje has been one of the better scoring duos in the country. Both can just score effortlessly, and both have very good cases to make the All Big Ten team.

The Wisconsin “dilemma” is similar to that of MSU. Wisconsin has beat 1 team (Arizona) that will make the tournament, 1 team (Pitt) that will most likely make the tournament, and they have1-3 wins against bubble teams depending on your definition. Their losses have come against Michigan, Marquette, Illinois, and UCLA. They don’t have a bad loss, but at the same time, what do they look like against top competition. I’d be curious to see what happens if they played those first 3 games listed again as they all came in early December. This defense has improved, and that was a big part of the issue in December. The offense is elite, but now we just need to see it put together in bigger games.

At the same time, it can’t be overlooked that they are handling pretty much everyone in their way right now.

Games Watched/Accountability Section

This is what I will call the 2nd accountability section. I may be wrong on numerous takes throughout the year, but I want to always at least be informed with my reasoning. This involves me watching and breaking down all 18 teams. So each week I’ll put up how many total games I have watched from every team. I cover Purdue individually on Boilers In The Stands which does require me to watch every Purdue game.

Added note, I only count a game as being watched if it has my entire attention. I may have games on a 2nd screen that I peak at, but it only gets count as watched if it is my main focus.