Big Ten Award Predictions + Power Rankings
It's an entirely new Big Ten with 18 teams, making it even that much tougher to rank
I didn’t want to do this. I really didn’t. No part of me wanted to make my head hurt by figuring out who I thought the 15 best players in the Big Ten would be and also rank all 18 Big Ten teams. This would be difficult with 10 Big Ten teams, let alone 18.
But alas, I felt that I must. I’ll break down my predictions for all of the awards including All Big Ten Teams, Defense Team, Freshmen Team, Transfer Team, Coach of the Year, 6th Man of the Year, and a pre season power ranking.
I found it really difficult to figure out exactly who I wanted in each of the final spots per team. I’ll throw in an honorable mention list when applicable basically to just ease my mind a bit. This is going to be a really fun season, one that I think you can make an argument for a *LOT* of different players, teams, and outcomes. Let’s get into it.
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Power Rankings
Note - updated power rankings will be included in my weekly FREE Big Ten newsletter
Comment below what you think I got wrong (and why if possible). I think pre season rankings for the Big Ten are harder than any other conference by a mile, with there being reasoning for a lot of teams to be ranked higher or lower.
I divided teams right now up into three tiers. For the most part, teams within tiers are really not that distinguishable from any of the others. The tiers themselves also are not far apart.
Tier 1 - Big Ten Championship Contenders
UCLA Bruins
Indiana Hoosiers
Purdue Boilermakers
Illinois Fighting Illini
Oregon Ducks
I think in a conference where you can easily poke holes in every single team, UCLA has by far the deepest team and the most answers. I think Cronin is a very good coach and is going to have a team that fits what he wants to do well.
Indiana and Purdue are virtually tied. Indiana has more talent across the board, while Painter has more success and is the best coach in the Big Ten. Both teams have questions to answer but undeniably can be very good.
Illinois and Oregon will both rely on younger players to lead their team. Both I think have very high upside, but I think the floor is a bit lower than the teams ahead of them.
Tier 2 - Outside Big Ten Championship Contenders
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Michigan Wolverines
Iowa Hawkeyes
Maryland Terrapins
Michigan State Spartans
I think the ceiling for all of these teams are to win the Big Ten. However I think across the board it is much easier to poke holes in them than the first tier.
Rutgers will be led by two elite freshmen in Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey. I think they carry them to a ton of wins, but there will inevitably be nights where they are off and I am concerned what happens there.
If the Michigan defense can be just average, then Michigan will climb. The offense is going to be a blast to watch and will make them competitive in any game.
Fran McCaffery had his worst team since 2018 last year, and they still were #57 in Kenpom while also having a lot of returning talent. If the defense can be top 100, this team can sneak it’s way up to the next tier.
Maryland and Michigan State feel like very similar teams to me, and I would basically have them tied. They both will be teams that rely on the defense, although there will be avenues for good offense. Both will play two bigs, both need young guys to be large parts, and both need a legitimate #1 option to emerge.
Tier 3 - Near the bubble that wouldn’t surprise me if they made the tourney
USC Trojans
Ohio State Buckeyes
Northwestern Wildcats
Penn State Nittany Lions
Washington Huskies
I’m all in on Saint Thomas and Desmond Claude for USC. I believe in what they can do, and if USC is able to protect the rim/figure out the interior, the upside is very much there. But there is also a floor where Thomas and Claude aren’t great and USC can’t do much on either end.
Ohio State is the team I am very willing to be wrong about, and they probably have the highest potential to jump tiers in week one. Bruce Thornton makes there still be a bit of a higher floor for this team, but I am really concerned about both the offensive spacing and defense overall.
Northwestern, Penn State, and Washington are all teams that I think nobody will want to play. They all feature a star with upside players around them. There is a large part of me that really really wants to rank them higher, and I think they can easily play themselves into the tournament.
Tier 4 - Ceiling is tourney team, floor is very much not
Minnesota Golden Gopher
Wisconsin Badgers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
If these 3 teams do finish last in the Big Ten, they will be probably among the best teams to finish last in the Big Ten EVER, regardless of how many teams are in the conference. I think the ceiling is bubble type teams, but they probably have the most to prove to me in terms of rotations and how it looks on the floor.
ALL BIG TEN TEAMS
Honorable Mention
Jaden Akins - MSU
Ace Bailey - Rutgers
Xavier Booker - MSU
Desmond Claude - USC
Frankie Fidler - MSU
Malik Reneau - Indiana
Owen Freeman - Iowa
Ja’Kobi Gillespie - Maryland
Roddy Gayle - Michigan
Vladislav Goldin - Michigan
Ben Humrichous - Illinois
Kobe Johnson - UCLA
Derik Queen - Maryland
Danny Wolf - Michigan
Brice Williams - Nebraska
If you’re wondering how some of these players didn’t make an All Big Ten team, I am too. Maybe I should just make my All Big Ten teams be 10 players like they seem to do with the real awards.
3rd Team All Big Ten
Payton Sandfort - Iowa
Bruce Thornton - Ohio State
Brooks Barnhizer - Northwestern
Trey Kaufman-Renn - Purdue
Jackson Shelstad - Oregon
This team features 4 upper classmen that either have already been good in a large role or expect to have a very large role this year. Jackson Shelstad is the lone under classmen, looking poised for a very big sophomore season.
2nd Team All Big Ten
Tyler Bilodeau - UCLA
Ace Baldwin - Penn State
Dawson Garcia - Minnesota
Oumar Ballo - Indiana
Kasparas Jakucionis - Illinois
This list features what I think will be 3 of the most productive bigs and 2 of the 5 best point guards in the conference. Tyler Bilodeau is probably the surprise name, but I think he is an absolutely perfect fit for the UCLA system and will be featured heavily.
1st Team All Big Ten
Braden Smith - Purdue
Great Osobor - Washington
Dylan Harper - Rutgers
Saint Thomas - USC
Myles Rice - Indiana
Unanimous (by default) Player of the Year - Braden Smith
Yes, Zach Edey is gone. No, Braden Smith was not Zach Edey made. In a conference with a ton of uncertainty on which teams will actually be good, Braden Smith is the best returning player. It’s his award until proved otherwise.
Great Osobor was crazy productive last season, and he is going to be asked to do a lot of everything once again. He is going to have an insane usage rate with I think pretty good efficiency. Throw in Washington can be feisty and Osobor finds himself on the list.
A case doesn’t probably need to be made for Dylan Harper, but I’ll do it anyways. I think he is the best freshman in the conference (at least in terms of one year of college basketball). But he isn’t just a normal freshman. Harper has the ability to absolutely dominate games with his scoring, facilitating, or defense, and I expect to see a lot of all 3.
Saint Thomas has been someone I have been crazy high on since watching his film. I’m banking on improvement in some of the small aspects, but I don’t think there is another player like him. He’s 6’7 and at times will play all 5 positions. You want a great facilitator, you got one. You want someone to iso and get a bucket, why not. You want someone with good defensive and rebounding upside to go along with a projected large usage, Thomas is your guy.
Myles Rice is the other guy I feel like I am higher on than consensus. Any Indiana success this season I think starts with him. Shooting for him and IU will be a question, but I think his athleticism and shiftiness are going to cover a ton of the holes IU had last year.
Defense Team
Honorable Mention
Jaden Akins - MSU
Ace Bailey - Rutgers
Juwan Gary - Nebraska
Julian Reese - Maryland
Myles Rice - Indiana
Yanic Niederhauser - Penn State
All Defense Team
Kobe Johnson - UCLA*
Ace Baldwin - Penn State
Brooks Barnhizer - Northwestern
KJ Evans - Oregon
Oumar Ballo - Indiana
*Defensive Player of the Year
This would be an elite defensive team that would actually fit really well together too. Kobe Johnson and Ace Baldwin are *ELITE* perimeter defenders that will strip the ball from anyone. Barnhizer and Evans are versatile forwards (although they do it in different ways) that can help around the rim and have perimeter upside. Ballo is the big man protecting the rim in the middle.
Freshman Team
Honorable Mentions
Will Riley - Illinois
LJ Cason - Michigan
Jase Richardson - MSU
KJ Windham - Northwestern
CJ Cox - Purdue
Zoom Diallo - Washington
Freshmen Team
Dylan Harper - Rutgers*
Kasparas Jakucionis - Illinois
Ace Bailey - Rutgers
Derik Queen - Maryland
Gicarri Harris - Purdue
*Freshman of the Year
This is an insanely talented freshman class. Harper, Bailey, and Jakucionis may all be lottery picks this year. Derik Queen has the upside to be a one and done 1st round pick as well. All 4 of them will be heavily featured on teams that project to be solid at minimum.
The last spot was the toughest. I went Gicarri Harris due to role + defense on a good Purdue team. He has a chance to start all year and be the Lance Jones role of last year. I had a hard time between Harris and CJ Cox for Purdue, but if I somehow knew now which player may have the larger role, that is who I would lean.
BONUS - The John Blackwell “He’s ranked way too low” Award
CJ Cox - Purdue
KJ Windham - Northwestern
Coming into college, John Blackwell was ranked #212 in the country. I watched his film and really questioned why he was, and Blackwell ended up making the all freshmen team.
CJ Cox and KJ Windham both fall in that category this year. CJ Cox was ranked #271 coming into this season. KJ Windham was ranked #201.
Transfer Team
Saint Thomas - USC*
Great Osobor - Washington
Myles Rice - Indiana
Tyler Bilodeau - UCLA
Oumar Ballo - Indiana
*Transfer of the year
Given that all 5 of these players are on my Big Ten team, I think the case presents itself.
BONUS - The Lance Jones “He’ll impact his team WAY more than expected” Award
I’m not going to act like I expected Lance Jones to be as important as he was this time last year. But I’ll make a guess or two at who I think it will be this year.
Tyler Bilodeau - UCLA
DJ Davis - Washington
Selton Miguel - Maryland
Brandon Angel - Oregon
Coach of the Year
Mick Cronin - UCLA
I have UCLA winning the Big Ten in year one of them being in the Big Ten. That feels like a good enough case in itself. I think this is also a unique year in that although there are teams that are not projected to be as good as others, there are also no teams projected to be outright bad. This makes it harder for there to be a surprise team that over achieves.
6th Man of the Year
Lazar Stefanovic - UCLA
UCLA is the deepest team in the conference to me, and Lazar Stefanovic starts on almost every single team in the conference. I expect him to be a big spark off the bench and a very consistent player for the Bruins.
HONORABLE MENTION
Will Riley - Illinois
CJ Cox - Purdue
Ra’Heim Moss - Oregon
Sebastian Mack - UCLA
OVERVIEW
Bolded indicates best in that category
So that is that. My brain hurts, but I am unbelievably excited for this Big Ten basketball season. If you made it this far, consider subscribing for a ton of content. I will have a lot of film and game breakdowns involving Big Ten teams that you will not be able to find anywhere else. I will also have film breakdowns on all incoming Big Ten freshmen and transfers starting during the season and finishing in the off season. If you want to subscribe, there is a 20% discount only until the start of the season (November 4th). No worries at all if you can’t, I expect one of those game breakdowns to be free per week in addition to a free weekly Big Ten newsletter. Subscribe for free to get those sent to you. I appreciate any and all support that people are able to provide. Looking forward to a great year!!!
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